Trading the Grand National is often hyped up but there are a few things to watch out for…
Being unaware can hurt your balance quite a lot, check out the 3 points shared below. Being aware of them before you start is only a good thing.
Circle of Competence
Warren Buffet often talks about knowing your ‘circle of competence’, this is extremely relevant to Grand National sports trading.
The race is an automation expert’s dream. Big betting queues, high prices, limited price movement and a bunch of manual traders being impatient. Don’t let that be you.
The bots and automation will be scraping a few pence here and there on many runners at a time. Fair play, that’s great for the automation nerds but it can produce somewhat misleading results for those who are going at it by hand.
Offering betting positions to the market is the way to go when trading the National (it’s why the bots do so well). If you’re trading it, turning up early to take some unmatched queue positions and being extremely patient is ideal. Let the market come to you, it’s where the value is!
Lower-Risk, Higher Reward
Millions of people will have a bet on the Grand National for all kinds of daft reasons. Horses name, colours and birthday numbers all come into the mix. It’s dumb money, making it ideal to scalp. Again you’ll want some good positions in the market offered at value prices but the point here is simple – target the turnover.
Often around 90% of a horse races traded volume will happen in the final live show. Those final minutes counting down to post are best, if there’s a false start or a delay you should remember its an opportunity. Much like the previous point, you want to be there in the market offering up matches while there is less unmatched money stacked on a price (much like Cheltenham).
If there’s a false start and delays sending the horses off make sure you squeeze that late liquidity whilst you have less unmatched to compete against.
Sure-Fire Money – An Easy Win
This one’s a bit sneaky, and the chances of catching more than one are low. However, the Grand National is chaos at just about every fence. There are so many horses and so much going on the in-running players can’t keep up. Occasionally you’ll see a horse that has fallen with money available to lay. Obviously, it won’t last for long but it’s a good thing to look out for with the trading ladders open…
If you catch one of those it’s free money. Be quick or you’ll regret it long after!
Knowing the horse’s historic running styles and behaviour is helpful here sometimes. Check out the article linked below for more help on that one…