Beating a sportsbook or bookmaker isn’t particularly hard when you know where and why.
I’ve deliberated about sharing this for a while now as the financial incentive for me is minimal, whilst the upside for you is massive.
However, just about every sportsbook has restricted or banned me now (and many people I know too). So there’s little value left in it for me. To that end, it would be a good idea to share it with those who follow this blog. If you’re a horse racing trader, it’s pretty easy to pick up a few hundred quid on either side of the daytime card doing it.
How to Beat a Bookmaker Effectively and Consistently…
The information given away in this video below is worth thousands. I have made thousands doing it myself, beating many sportsbooks and bookmakers over and over.
If you’re picky with the points in step #3 you can beat a bookie extremely fast…
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Here’s a little extra about each of the steps discussed in the above video…
Step 1: Where to Beat the Bookie
It would be foolish to think you can beat a bookmaker on every betting market, you just can’t. Their margin is baked in to the odds the offer you.
However, knowing where they slip up and how you can exploit it is huge. Think in reverse – what don’t they like and why?
As explained in the video above, they routinely drop the ball in certain areas. The more chaotic things are, the more overwhelmed they are and the less their trading room is going to spot one account kicking the hell out of them. Keep that in mind for maximum profits.
Betting odds that are extremely popular and promoted by sportsbooks, bookmakers and the racing post should be questioned first. It’s a bit like accumulator betting, they promote it for a reason. Long-term, you can’t win through skill or knowledge.
Know where to exploit them, focus on the events mentioned in the video and don’t waste your time elsewhere.
Step 2: How to Beat the Bookmaker
Understanding where and when you are going to get a jump on them is a large part of the battle, although it’s important to know when to leave a bet alone and when you should stake up.
As the video explanation says; the bigger the difference in odds, the harder you should stake. This is logical when you think about it as the difference in odds represents the size of your advantage.
Focusing on prices at the starting time of an event is wise because we know this is when betting markets are at their most efficient.
Everybody knows it’s extremely hard to win at the SP due to this, so get one up by betting at the events that start with a high-value price. In the video the spreadsheet shows the difference in value on offer when the odds are changed, check it out.
Step 3: Beating the Sportsbooks Odds
The combination of odds and volumes is a very important factor, betting volumes show the overall sentiment of the marketplace at SP.
I highly suspect that not all betting activity is particularly ‘straight. Often, when using this strategy I’ve laid out you will look at the exchange markets and think – was that inside money?
I suspect it was. The good news is, you can now make money from it too (but only do it at enhanced value).
A bigger price value and bigger exchange volume mean a better opportunity.
Look at the yellow line on the Geek Toy chart.
Step 4: Long-term Value
You have to get it in your head; we’re playing the long game. Probability and variance will always be there, and you can’t stop it.
Get confirmation on the 3 points I list and pull the trigger. Don’t overtake as sometimes the selection won’t come in, you can’t control that, just play the value game.
Note: the ‘long-game’ is rarely that long when you do it right.
Ensure you bankroll can withstand several more losing bets than the odds you are playing around suggest. For example; if you are routinely betting at 3/1 type odds, make sure you don’t use any more than 10% of your bankroll per bet. Even with a bad streak of variance, it’s less likely you’ll go broke, particularly when you factor in the value margin.
Step 5: Permanently Beating the Bookie
Just know they are all greedy b*stards. You will get restricted, gubbed, banned etc for doing this. But what use is a losing betting account?
None in my book.
I’m not into wasting my time so the way I have found it’s best to operate is – hit them hard when there’s the maximum value, ride out the variance and then laugh as you leave following the inevitable restrictions. If you use the larger bookmakers you shouldn’t have too much trouble withdrawing, but be wary of the smaller outfits that the general public haven’t heard of.