Over the last week or so I’ve been playing about with the Tennis markets more and more…
I’ve noticed a few interesting things with it being so different to the racing and thought it would be good to share/hear what others think on it. Don’t be shy, drop us a comment…
The tennis is a different beast altogether in most ways, although there are similarities in some areas too. Mostly the human behaviour aspect, both inside and interestingly outside of the markets.
The interesting thing about the tennis is that once you have some good in-play strategies it should be far easier to ‘scale up’ than the racing (in theory). The strangest thing I’ve noticed about the tennis though, is the pattern in the players behaviour. When it comes to closing a set/match or even consolidating a break of serve, even more so in the WTA.
You’re probably wondering what the screenshot’s all about right now, let me explain….
So in this game with Makarova v Radwanska it appears the 1.3 Favourite is about to get turned over and is still likely on the face of it. However play has been stopped due to the rain! In my eye’s this presents us with a bit of a different situation as there is the possibility that Radwanska should come back out firing on all cylinders with Makarova a bag of nerves – if that’s the case it must be a value bet at the prices at least.
While im in the red its my own foolishness as I had the opportunity to hedge up for just over 3 figures a couple of games before play was delayed – c’est la vie. I actually believed she could still turn the game around – hopefully she will!
When play resumes Radwanska will serve to stay in the match, presuming she does I may even go crazy and back her for another tenner (risk taking isn’t my strongest point). This leads me on to my next point nicely, as you may wonder why don’t you just back her now? Indeed I could and I’d get a better price than if she wins the next game but its a poor entry based on what I’ve learnt recently.
The urge to back a player on serve seems great in trading terms although it seems there are very few who it is safe to do this with and numbers wise it just absolutely does not make any sense!! It only ever makes sense to lay the server numerically in the markets – let me explain…
Based on a match with a 1.36 fav –
- If the favourite is to serve and WIN the first point the price will contract 1 tick, maybe 2 if you’re lucky.
- If they are to go 2 points ahead again 1 more (3 ticks total – tops)
- If they are then to win the game again once more you may get 1 more tick although depending on the market and previous points played it may just remain the same!
Now lets look what would happen if you was to lay the serve instead –
- If the favourite is to serve and Looses the first point the price will drift 4 ticks, maybe 5 if you’re lucky.
- If they then go 2 points down you get an extra 10 ticks profit on top of your existing position!
- If they then lose the game you’re likely to get another 21 ticks on top of that!!
So if you compare the two different possible outcomes in such an instance (and I know at that range the price is more compressed) then why would you even consider such a risk?
In comparison if you back the server for the game you stand to gain 4 ticks. Alternately you could lose 36! I know which side I’d rather be on.
One of the other things I have noticed is it seems normal to feel more comfortable staking larger at shorter odds (probably because you think it’s definitely going to happen) and smaller at large odds – again, it make’s not sense! I have to admit though its tricky. I suspect fully the key to tennis is having a very good staking/bank management plan. More so than the horse racing.
And finally – the odds. Nobody seems to talk about this but if you notice the screenshot above once more the price on player A always reflects the price on player B. For example 1.02 = 55 (a bit less than 55 but I wont waffle on) but what about after a player is trading at 1.01 – for example when a favourite is ahead even though there is a whole load of games ahead of them? From 100 – 1000 it seems to be a bit of a ‘value’ zone in tennis as there is no corresponding odds on the alternate player (worth bearing in mind if the favourite is ahead and suddenly starts to play terribly).
A bit of a ramble there although I have no doubt a few of you will find it thought-provoking if nothing else! If you have anything of interest to add/ask please do!
Related: Simple Tennis Trading Strategies