Nasty Market Monsters In March – Happens Every Year…

Posted on Posted in Cheltenham Festival

Is it worth the fight?…

Market Manipulation Betfair

Is this the perfect image or what?

After the Cheltenham festival, super-traders are on a high. And still flexing their muscles if you like…

Braving the markets waters while they lurk can be a dangerous business. Over-stake in the wrong place and they’ll rip you apart.

However, like any oversized, clumsy oaf; they give away value too. That’s where we, the smaller fish, get to pick up free cash in their wake.

Don’t feed them…

They’re still lurking, they always are in March. For the last 6 years I’ve been involved in the markets they’ve been there on the follow-up after the festival.

In the early day’s I didn’t see it as I do now though. It’s actually an opportunity, if you’re careful.

The initial thing to do is scream “this isn’t fair” but you have to realise; no matter how big they are the market will still do its thing. It really doesn’t care, they can’t control it completely – and they play a risky game if a large gamble unfolds. They need discipline too!

After a while it will subside, I’d assume it’s only after they have got burnt fingers. If you manage to realise what they’re doing at points it’s quite easy to see they get in a mess at times (usually the easiest points to profit off them).

As another full-timer used to say to me on Skype – “Just don’t feed them!” patience is key.

The image above is the perfect. Rather than taming the beast I’d suggest it’s best to just ride the waves in their wake…

Bank Size…

I’m not going to bullshit you; they’re obviously making money from the way they behave. To them having a huge bank is an advantage, but don’t get too hung up on it. Having a larger bank doesn’t mean instant profit. And not many of us have the option of 6 figures in our account anyway.

Having a larger bank at events like Cheltenham, Ascot and the Grand National are an advantage. But only because you can have more money placed in the market at higher prices on the lay side of the book. With a bigger bank you don’t have to commit so much liability to one position, making the freedom of spreading orders about easier. It doesn’t mean you’ll definitely win more though.

Just this week someone messaged me about this, in fact theirs a YouTube video about bank size and trading full-time.

What I’m trying to say is; having a larger bank doesn’t mean more consistency. It just means more freedom when placing orders and possibly larger wins, but it also means larger losses!

Looking Ahead…

The good news is it’s nearly April, for two reasons.

One because it’s my birthday (I’ll be 30 this year, proper old eh?) and two because the summer racing starts!

The evening racing in the summer is probably my favourite thing about trading, excluding the hype of big events. Why? Because it’s where I first found some success, working a normal job at the same time.

The evening markets have a few subtle differences to them. To me they’ve always felt a bit more genuine. The first week or so is often a little slow going but general liquidity in the summer evenings is far better than the standard all-weather stuff on offer of a Wednesday night at the moment…

Related Article: Summer Racing Start In April

8 thoughts on “Nasty Market Monsters In March – Happens Every Year…

  1. Only just discovered your site Caan, and it is proving fascinating reading for me. I guess I’m probably in the position you were in a few years ago, in trying to hold down a job, but also trying to bring enough in through trading on Betfair to give up the job and start trading full time.

    The big challenge for me at the moment is trying to get my head round the horse racing markets prior to the start of the race. There is clearly money to be made there, but my knowledge of racing is fairly limited. (I tend to stick with cricket and football). I’m risking tiny amounts until I’m a bit more confident. I’m doing alright with football and cricket, but would like another string to my bow.

    Keep up the good work with the site, and you’ve certainly got another regular reader!

    Dave

  2. Brilliant post Caan. I can really relate to this with my trading this week. Yesterday there was somebody putting 20 thousands in the market, unreal.

    1. lol, very tough paper-round mate. I used to do 3 just for the extra cash 😉

      Obviously this was before I realised the way to get money is to be smart and work hard rather than just the latter.

  3. Another interesting & informative post, thanks Caan. Who do you think these ‘big fish’ generally are? Due to the fact you say, you noticed them in March, indicates they may be traders of some other kind getting involved in the large liquidity of Cheltenham maybe? What’s your take? Interesting to hear this stuff though.

    1. Of course it’s impossible to say. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just a handful that operate in the markets throughout the year anyway, probably on an automated basis too.

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