Research in the Horse Racing markets…
Over the last couple of week’s I’ve immersed myself in the markets, recordings of races, form and generally any data I’ve collected on a daily basis. The picture above has been a pretty accurate depiction of how I’ve felt at times. Particularly amongst the Uberman sleep schedule I previously mentioned. I’ve found it pretty tough keeping to the Uberman although once you get going it’s not all that bad, for the level of productivity it brings out in me its an easy trade-off at this point in time. As the saying goes – ‘Work hard, Play hard’ I have no problems with the latter so a period of focus doesn’t hurt!
So what have I found? Lots… some of which im not 100% about just yet though best to keep on recording and looking that bit deeper. However there have been some interesting developments from things I long since expected but never really delved into. I’ve never been one for precise data and have managed to make a lot based around general ideas and known market behaviours through experience although having collected some numbers and played around with them in excel its surprising quite how effective it can be.
Here’s a chart I produced comparing different times of day in the markets. I guess it makes sense although even after years of trading them I was surprised quite how so many of them followed a similar pattern despite being on different days at different courses. The real pain is with all the self-matching and manipulation that goes on in the markets. Sometimes freak spikes appear making things harder to read, for ease I’ve taken a couple of them lines that were plotted on the chart below off. (its east to spot it when it’s happend, just a case of correlating the spike in numbers with a race recording)
I’m not 100% on how im going to make best use of some of these finds although I’d highly advise it to anyone that’s serious as it constantly throws up new ideas and theories behind moves in the markets.
Why am I doing all this?
Hopefully I’ll manage to increase my edge significantly, particularly when it comes to swing trading. Doing this would obviously allow the opportunity to increase profits but also allow me to complete more trades on Betdaq where its premium charge free. The liquidity in an average mid-week market over there isn’t as much as I’d like although things certainly seem to be on the up. Being able to operate on their day in day out while limiting risk would be ideal as a longer term option. Particularly with the routine Betfair crashes of late, again this week on Saturday it got so jittery it put me off completing an afternoons trade. And the week before it creamed in…. If they don’t get it sorted for Cheltenham it’s a real worry.