When Prices Go Walkies… Drifters

Posted on Posted in Betdaq, Betfair, Horse Racing

Drifting Exchange Prices…

Betting Exchanges

Every day prices drift on the exchange… they always will.

Spotting a potential drifter is half the battle. Seeing a potential situation is the key to getting on early in my opinion (those extra few ticks make all the difference).

In fact, spotting a drifter is fast becoming my preferable approach to trading. Mainly because it takes a huge amount of money to ‘reverse’ a genuine drift.

Maximizing the position…

Something I’ve noticed though is; of those attempting to trade the markets, many don’t like laying shorter priced horses.

I’d hazard a guess it’s because of the volatile behaviour that can happen further down the price range. Particularly when there are thousands flying into the markets at a time!

It’s quite easy to feel like a lone person amongst some kind of savage storm, short-term, it is! But you have to remember; the behaviour at these prices also brings huge benefits…

For a start, it’s far easier to get on for a larger stake, un-noticed. Secondly, if a horse is vulnerable to the rest of the market (and likely to drift) then there’s every chance you can pick up more profitable tics than at higher prices (10.0 and above).

The middle ground seems to be around 5.0 – 8.0 when spotting a drift (obviously there will be a larger sample). Although the short priced drifters are the real value in my eyes. Just think about it…

How often did you open a trade at 1.5 (lay side first) only to find the price plummeted into 1.4? Of course these things can happen, but what’s more likely? For a shift in price like that, the market would have to be pretty weak, in relation to the favourite…

Control over what you’re doing…

Here’s another thought: How easy is it to predict when a horse will be continually supported? I don’t mean supported, that’s quite possible, but how can you know when the money will just keep on coming? Everything has a limit, right?

The problem we can face when trading a market is; X horse is likely to be supported, X horse is being supported (and so we open a position). But how long will that horse be supported?

Having a feel for how the markets trading is likely to let you make a decision if you will increase stakes or exit the trade. But how can you truly know when the gamble is down and on? You can’t

The benefit of trading a drifting price is therefore; if genuine money starts to come for your drifting price, you know the drift is over. End of story, next race. And if it doesn’t… there’s room to let it run, the point being. You’ll know very quickly if the move is over, where as with a backing first and trading a price steaming, it can be harder to know if the support has dried up.

Hopefully that makes sense…

I published this video on YouTube a while ago about drifters on Betfair. It’s still useful now.

For more free recordings, make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel here…

Related Article: Swing Trade On Betfair

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *