5 In-Play Football Betting Strategies That Actually Work -

When it comes to the football betting the in-play markets offer a lot of opportunities. Odds change quickly, games change in the blink of an eye.

In today’s article, we are going to give you 5 powerful in-play football betting strategies that actually work!

Let’s get straight into it…

They’re so good, they might even bet your Bet365 account limited for winning (be warned).

Dangerous Set Pieces

The first strategy we will look at is very simple but effective.

One of the big advantages of having live video and being able to trade/bet on football is the ability to get in and out of the market at any time. This is the beauty of in-play football betting and trading, there are so many approaches you can take.

One of the strongest in-play betting strategies I like to use is to lay the favourite team when they concede a dangerous set piece.

The market usually underreacts to a strong team conceding a corner. Teams such as Man City/Liverpool/Bayern Munich are prime examples. If a team is priced at low odds of around the 1.2 – 1.4 range, the movement when they concede a set piece is relatively small.

This means that we can back the underdog or lay the favourite then exit usually for a very small loss if the goal doesn’t happen. If the ball does end up in the net then we have a great position in the game with the favourite a goal down.

Historically around 13.5% of goals on average come from corners in the Premier League. Finding teams that are historically strong from corners or opposing teams that are weak can increase this percentage.

For some teams set pieces are a huge part of their game. Certain teams are very strong from corners or from free kicks that can be whipped into the box. Having some familiarity with the teams you are betting/trading can give you a big advantage when it comes to set pieces.

Overall this strategy is great in terms of low risk and potential reward.

Laying The Draw

Next up is a strategy that you will probably have heard about before laying the draw…

This strategy is very simple but there are many variations that you can use with the lay the draw strategy. For example, you can lay the draw from the start of the game and let it run till the end as a straight bet.

The most popular method of this strategy is to lay the draw from the beginning of the game and exit once a goal is scored. A common problem with this strategy however is when the underdog scores in the first half.

The market believes the favourite has plenty of time to equalize. Which could leave you with a slightly losing position or breakeven.

Other takes on the strategy are to lay the draw in the first half market after an open 15 minutes. This way even if the underdog scores, a profit is likely to be available due to the shorter amount of time left. Laying the draw in the second half is another popular in-play football betting strategy that works on the same basis. Due to the shorter amount of time left in the game it can be used as a straight football betting system.

Below are some variations of the strategy:

Lay the full time draw pre match .
Lay the first half draw (after 15 mins, 30 mins etc)
Lay the draw at half time.
Lay the full time draw after 60 minutes, 75 minutes.

The lay-the-draw strategy still works today and can be adapted to fit your own trading style. Either as a straight up football betting system or by exiting on a goal and trading out.

Using Time Decay to Profit…

Time decay uses the fact that odds have to move in one direction as the minutes tick closer to the end of the game. Unless a goal occurs.

For example, the odds of 0-0 may start at 20.00, however, if the game remains at this score until the whistle is blown. Then the odds have to move all the way down to 1.01.

In football there are periods in the game when the odds will move much faster, understanding when these periods occur can be very profitable. If we look at super favourites such as Man City/Barcelona/Bayern Munich.

The starting odds for 0-0 in these games are usually extremely high!

If you were watching the Bayern game and could see that Freiburg were sitting deep, stalling at every opportunity. Bayern were generally struggling to break them down and create chances. Opening a position on the 0-0 could be a great bet. At such high odds, it would not take long to start dripping out of your position as time went on.

Other factors you can look at are weather conditions.

Snow
Heavy Rain
Wind
Water Logged Pitch
Heat

These are factors that can stifle teams and lead matches to be much lower scoring affairs then pre match statistics may indicate.

Second Half Time Decay Strategy

In the second half, you will often find the market starts to panic from 70 onwards. If a favourite has been on top of the game previously but not managed to score. Each missed chance or a loss of possession from the super favourite can cause the odds on the under goals or correct score market to shorten very quickly.

You can apply the same strategy when a heavily backed favourite is losing the game. The market reacts in a similar fashion. The odds will start to drift (get bigger) at an accelerated rate.

Understanding how to use time decay is a very powerful football betting strategy that only applies to the in-play betting markets.

Laying The Correct Score/Backing Overs

The next strategy to consider is laying the correct score or backing-overs in a game. Again having live video is always going to be an advantage in combination with some historical statistics. If you can see that a game is being played at a very high tempo and opportunities are being created.

Backing a goal to be scored in the first half market or 90-minute market can be very profitable.

In fact one of the most successful football traders of all time Psychoff used this method time and time again when he ran a free Telegram group.

It is a very simple strategy and is about comparing the probability of a goal be scored via your own analysis to the odds that are available.

Laying The Leader

Last on the list is laying the leading team.

This is a strategy that I have used very successfully over the years. There are certain setups that I like to look for in a game. If you are looking for general in play football betting tips to improve your trading this is great example to look at!

The away team is leading by one or two goals (No more)
The home team is showing attacking intent (Shots on goals, XG, use statistics or live feed)
The away team has seen a red card (a bonus but not a necessity)

A good example of a match that met this criteria yesterday was Backa Topola vs Olympiacos yesterday. Olympiacos were leading the game 0-2 at one point. They then conceded a goal and had a red card which allowed Backa to start pressuring for a late goal.

Watching the game live it looked like there was a good chance Backa would equalize and potentially go on to win late. So I entered a lay of Olympiacos at 1.3 and had a small back bet on Topola at odds of 38.00.

The game finished 2-2 in the end and the lay bet on Olympiacos was won!

In-Play Football Betting Strategies – Conclusion

We have looked at 5 excellent In-Play Football Betting Strategies to approach the markets with in this article!

It is advisable to use strategies that you are comfortable with and are confident in using. Make sure you are staking appropriately in relation to your bankroll and keep track of the bets that you make.

Whilst we will never pretend that making money from betting and trading is easy, with a disciplined approach there is life-changing money to made.