In-play football betting is a huge market offering a lot of opportunities.
Millions of pounds are turned over every week during football games.
The in-play football markets are ever-changing and very dynamic markets with big changes in the odds occurring. Injuries, weather changes, substitutions, red cards, goals, there is so much that can happen in a football game.
So in today’s article, we are going to look at 5 in-play football betting strategies that actually work.
Dangerous Set Pieces:
The first strategy that were are going to look at is very simple but effective.
One of the big advantages of having live video and being able to trade/bet on football is the ability to get in and out of the market at any time. A favourite strategy of mine is to lay the favourite team when they concede a dangerous set piece.
The market usually underreacts to a strong team conceding a corner, for example, Man City/Liverpool/Bayern Munich. If a team is priced at low odds 1.2 – 1.4 then the movement when they concede a set piece is relatively small.
For some teams set pieces are a huge part of their game. Certain teams are very strong from corners or from free kicks that can be whipped into the box. Having some familiarity with the teams you are betting/trading can give you a big advantage when it comes to set pieces.
Historically around 13% of goals on average come from corners in the Premier League. Finding teams that are historically strong from corners or opposing teams that are weak can increase this percentage.
Overall this strategy is great in terms of low risk and potential reward.
Laying The Draw
Next up is an old favourite laying the draw…
This strategy is very simple but there are many variations that you use with lay the draw. For example, you can lay the draw from the start of the game and let it run till the end as a straight bet.
The most popular method of this strategy is to lay the draw from the beginning of the game and exit once a goal is scored. A common problem with this strategy however is when the underdog scores in the first half.
The market believes the favourite has plenty of time to equalize. Which could leave you with a slightly losing position or breakeven.
Other takes on the strategy are to lay the draw in the first half market after an open 15 minutes. This way even if the underdog scores a profit is likely to be available due to the shorter amount of time left. Laying the draw in the second half is another popular strategy that works on the same basis, with a shorter amount of time till the game finishes.
The lay-the-draw strategy still works today and can be adapted to fit your own trading style.
Using Time Decay to Profit…
Time decay uses the fact that odds have to move in one direction as the minutes tick closer to the end of the game. Unless a goal occurs.
For example, the odds of 0-0 may start at 20.00, however, if the game remains at this score until the whistle is blown. Then the odds have to move all the way down to 1.01.
In football there are periods in the game when the odds will move much faster, understanding when these periods occur can be very profitable. If we look at super favourites such as Man City/Barcelona/Bayern Munich.
The starting odds for 0-0 in these games are usually extremely high!
If you were watching the Bayern game and could see that Freiburg were sitting deep, stalling at every opportunity. Bayern were generally struggling to break them down and create chances opening a position on the 0-0 could be a great bet. At such high odds, it would not take long to start dripping out of your position as time went on.
In the second half, you will often find the market starts to panic from 70 onwards. Each missed chance or a loss of possession from the super favourite can cause the odds to shorten very quickly.
You can apply the same strategy when it is heavily backed favourite is losing the game. The market reacts in a similar fashion.
Laying The Correct Score/Backing Overs
The next strategy to consider is laying the correct score or backing-overs in a game. Again having live video is always going to be an advantage in combination with some historical statistics. If you can see that a game is being played at a very high tempo and opportunities are being created.
Backing for there to be a goal in the first half market or 90-minute market can be very profitable.
In fact one of the most successful football traders of all time Psychoff used this method time and time again when he ran a free Telegram group.
Laying The Leader:
Last on the list is laying the leading team.
This is a strategy that I have used very successfully over the years. There are certain setups that I like to look for in a game.
- The away team is leading by one or two goals (No more)
- The home team is showing attacking intent (Shots on goals, XG, use statistics or live feed)
- The away team has seen a red card (a bonus but not a necessity)
A good example of a match that met this criteria yesterday was Backa Topola vs Olympiacos yesterday. Olympiacos were leading the game 0-2 at one point. They then conceded a goal and had a red card which allowed Backa to start pressuring for a late goal.
Watching the game live it looked like there was a good chance Backa would equalize and potentially go on to win late. So I entered a lay of Olympiacos at 1.3 and had a small back bet on Topola at odds of 38.00.
In-Play Football Betting Strategies – Conclusion
We have looked at 5 excellent In-Play Football Betting Strategies to approach the markets within this article!
It is advisable to use strategies that you are comfortable with and are confident in using. Make sure you are staking appropriately in relation to your bankroll and keep track of the bets that you make.
Whilst we will never pretend that making money from betting and trading is easy, with a disciplined approach there is life-changing money to made.