Laying the draw tips

Laying The Draw Tips And Tricks – Still A Profitable Strategy…

Posted on Posted in Football

Laying the draw is one of the most popular sports trading strategies for beginners.

Why?

Football is one of the largest spectator sports in the UK. Almost everyone understands the basics of a Football match. It’s much easier to implement a trading strategy around a sport you understand. And love…

Laying the Draw Explained

So, how do you lay the draw and what does it mean? If you’re not familiar with what a lay bet is, read this first.

Instead of betting that a draw will happen, we are betting that the match result WILL NOT be a draw. In other words, either the home or away team will win. This strategy is almost always used in-play.

To get a better idea of how the strategy works, let’s take a look at an example setup:

Match Selection:

For arguments sake we select Chelsea vs Crystal Palace for our trade. Chelsea are playing at home and, are more likely to win. Chelsea have scored 59 goals so far this season, which is the 2nd highest in the league.

Entry Trade:

It’s now 75 minutes into the game and the score is still 0-0. Chelsea are looking more likely to score. There have already been a few near-misses. Crystal Palace are looking like they are about to crumble!

We start by placing a £10 lay bet on the draw at odds of 1.85. Liability is £8.50 but we stand to make £10 profit if the match ends in a win from either side. Of course, we will cash out before game nears 90 minutes to avoid any late upset.

Exit Trade:

82 minutes in and Chelsea manage to score a goal! The score is 1-0 and the odds of the draw drastically increase. I could risk it and leave my bet until the final whistle but I would lose all my profit, and my £8.50 lay liability if Palace equalise.

We could ‘cash out’ via the Betfair website, or green up using a trading tool taking our profit without any further risk. Depending on the situation, time of match, state of play and teams involved will effect the closing price. But so late in a game you’d expect a high stake-profit return.

Lay the Draw Tips:

Laying the draw isn’t a sure-fire strategy for every match. Picking the right ones is key, here’s a few tips towards that:

Match Selection Is Key

Would a professional poker player make a raise without know the probability of getting a good hand?

No, they wouldn’t.

You need to know that the game your trading has a high probability of goals being scored. Using widely available football stats, take your time to research how teams perform under different environments. Here are some factors you may want to consider:

  • Recent head to heads – Have these teams played against each other recently. If so, what was the result?
  • Recent scores – Have these teams had any draws recently? Any 0-0’s?
  • Key players missing – It’s always useful to check if any of the top goalscorers are missing from the squads.
  • Average goal time – We’ll talk more about this below

Games involving teams teams that need to win are usually good start. Perhaps the home team needs to win to avoid relegation? You will often find that in situations like these, teams do everything they can to score a goal.

Keep in mind that if you find a good looking game with little or no money available on Betfair, you may have a hard time trading or cashing out. Liquidity is always our friend.

Goal Timings

Some teams have a tendency to score more goals within certain time-frames.

For example; Manchester United score the majority of their goals (26.15%, to be specific) between 76 and 90+ minutes.

Knowing this information, it would make good sense to place your lay bet at 76 minutes. This is assuming that your other criteria has been met.

When is the best time to trade out?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer here. Make sure you stay consistent with your exits during each game. If you lack consistency, it will be very hard to analyse and optimise your strategy in the future.

The simplest way to exit your trade is to use Betfair’s cash out button as soon as a goal is scored. However, you might find that this doesn’t give you the best return in the long run. Each time you’ll lose a price increment or two, and if you’re doing it via a bookmaker you’re getting ripped off bigtime.

The complexity of your exit depends on your level of understanding for the game. For example, you may be watching the game and see that the home team (who are currently 1-0 up) is still trying for another goal.

Perhaps you are more numbers oriented and have set a target for the draw odds. In this case, you might be waiting for the odds of the draw to go above 6.0 before you cash out.

What happens if the underdog scores first?

The underdog scoring the first goal can make things very tricky.

You need to be prepared for this as it will happen.

How the market reacts to an underdog goal depends entirely on the circumstances. If the goal was a lucky break, the market will likely assume that the favourite can still equalise with relative ease. In this case the draw odds might even drop, putting you in the red!

You might choose to reflect on the current in-play statistics and judge whether the favourites are still likely to win. If you do decide to wait for the favourites to equalise and score another after that, you are in danger of losing your whole lay bet.

It may be safer to cash out for a small loss and move on to the next game.

Sometimes it’s clear that the pre-match underdog has actually turned out much stronger on the day. Maybe the original favourites are playing some of their less experienced players? This is the best case scenario for you as the odds will reflect the newfound strength in the underdogs. In this example, the draw odds would naturally rise and put you into some profit.

Is Laying The Draw still profitable?

Being one of the most popular sports trading strategies has definitely made things a little harder. When a lot of people are using the same strategy, the edge does fade away slightly.

The key really is to focus on match selection. Picking low probability matches will result in disaster.

So long as you put the effort in with your research and stick to markets with enough money available to trade out, you should be onto a winner.

Optimise Your Strategy

Recording your results is vital to long-term success trading Betfair. Not only does it help with knowing your P/L, but it helps you to increase it too!

Let me explain…

Let’s say you lay the draw in 100 different games. Let’s also imagine you have made 15% profit so far. If we look at our previous results and figure out where we are losing money, we can make changes to our strategy to avoid those losses in the future.

You might notice that certain leagues perform better than others. Perhaps you are more profitable when you lay the draw in the first half market?

Only your records will tell. Focus on what’s working and cut out what’s not. Who knows. Maybe you can turn that 15% into 50% or more!

Related Article: 4 Profitable Football Trading Strategies…

3 thoughts on “Laying The Draw Tips And Tricks – Still A Profitable Strategy…

  1. I have developed a much more sophisticated approach then the LTD >

    have a look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation / lack of expectation of a draw <

    what you will find if you trade the draw in play is that 0-0 FT is out of the equation as you will not be laying the draw in games that are 0-0 in general

  2. as a point of interest Man UTD last 26 away games in the PL when 0-0 on 79 minutes < conceded zero goals and scored 9 goals

  3. Laying the Draw in Play ( LTD ) V ” Trading ” the Draw in play around the effect of the time of the opening goal

    “Goals: More goals mean more chances to trade out with a profit. You are always going to hit the odd 0-0 draw, but aim for plenty of goals and you will minimise losing trades. Recent form is a great indicator, making sure that teams you’re banking on have been scoring goals. ”

    My c response > Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( GAME STATE ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal with reference to accuracy as time decays in the game.

    ” I have been forced to tackle the evolution of the Betfair match odds markets, ensuring that lay the draw is still a profitable trading strategy to use.

    In order to reduce liability and increase profit margins, I set out to develop first half and second half lay the draw strategies. First half LTD is more difficult to get right because teams don’t have to score, but the market knows that so prices are reduced accordingly.

    I developed a couple of very strong strategies which Goal Profits members have full access to, including a daily shortlist of matches delivered by our Team Stats software.

    Kevin further developed these first and second half strategies by taking advantage of goal windows.

    Without Team Stats data I wouldn’t fancy my chances, but the automated filters are working well.

    I also developed and tested a ‘full match’ lay the draw strategy.

    It is higher risk than first or second half lay the draw and that doesn’t suit all types of trader, but it is available for those Goal Profits members who wish to use it.

    Rather than the traditional LTD method with its squeezed margins, this new version specifically looks for matches which are likely to go 2-0 and bank a much bigger profit ”

    My response > The thought process that a high % of games in football end a draw because of teams fighting back ( > 1-1 ) is flawed and the actual reason is because football in general will produce a low goal production hence the draw bias with the caveat that an early goal metric could result in expectation of acceleration of goal production which may lower expectation of a draw.

    If you are at a trading seminar / trading room discussing which games are likely to go from 0-1/1-0 to 2-0/0-2 , this area is known as GAME PATHWAY ANALYSIS

    For example last season in the Premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway was just as likely as > 0-2 pathway .

    6/63 0-1 FT

    29/63 > 1-1 7-13-9 away teams won 31%

    28/63 > 0-2 1-3-24 away teams won 86%

    We can look at the % of draws in the Premier League in games where the away teams open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

    27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% ( 08-09-15-16 )

    What if the early away goal game in the Premier League is 0-1 half time in terms of expectation of draw bias ?

    26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19% ( 08-09-15-16 )

    Do you look to lay the draw late in games in an attempt to bag a late goal ?

    42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% ( goal % 80+ in games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minute time band )

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