The correct score trading market on Betfair is an interesting market. There are so many options available and ways to trade it.
In today’s article, we are going to cover 4 profitable correct score trading strategies that you can use on Betfair.
Targeting A First Half Goal
The first correct score trading strategy that we will look at is laying the 0-0 correct score in the first half market. Personally, I love this market, it is one that is often overlooked and as such can offer a lot of value.
My favourite way to target the correct score in the first half is to first look at statistical data using a site like soccer stats. Find teams that tend to score or concede a high percentage in the first half and also note the optimal goal times.
Note the selection down and check how the first 10 minutes of the game have played out. If the game looks lively in the first 10 minutes and weather conditions are good (no heavy rain or snow which can slow down play). Then enter the game with a lay on the correct first-half score of 0-0.
Scalping The Correct Score Market
Moving on to the second strategy, we have to scalp the correct score!
Scalping involves getting in and out of the market in order to make a small profit. Usually, this is used at times when the game is stalling. This can be due to a number of reasons such as injuries, weather conditions or tactical changes on the pitch.
The ideal scenario for scalping the correct score is when an underdog is leading and the game is entering the last 20 minutes. Up until this period, there is usually a market expectancy for the favourite to score but as the clock moves closer to 90 minutes, the speed at which the current score drifts in price increases rapidly.
Most underdogs who hold a one-goal lead will also usually do their best to stall play. Faking injuries, keeping the ball in the corner, managers making substitutions etc. If you have watched enough football you will see the signs of when a team is trying to run down the clock.
The Unlikely Underdog – 0-1 After 70 mins
Another useful correct score strategy to have in your arsenal is to take a contrarian approach and back a big underdog to take a 0-1 lead. Strong home favourites with the crowd behind often usually also have the market following them. This can create value for the underdog to take a lead with little time left on the clock.
A great way to utilize this strategy is when the underdog wins a dangerous free kick or corner kick. There is usually a much bigger upside to this trade than down side.
Laying At Optimal Score Times
The next strategy involves looking at optimal scoring times for teams.
Let’s take a look at the Norwegian team Viking. They are a team that scores the vast majority of their goals in the second half when playing at home. In the last 30 minutes of the game, you can see they have scored 17 out of their total 24 goals this season.
Now let’s take a look at Ham Kam another Norwegian football team. When Ham Kam plays away we see that their optimal time for scoring and conceding is also in the last 30 minutes of the second half.
Looking at these scoring times entering a correct score lay in the last 30 minutes looks like a great bet. Depending on the correct score odds and flow of the game.
For example, if Viking were leading 3-0 and there was no urgency in the game. Then I would avoid laying the correct score however if there was only a one goal difference between the teams. It is very likely that I would be entering a lay bet on the correct score.
There you have it 4 correct score trading strategies for Betfair!
If you want to find out more about using statistics to trade football, check out the article below!
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