Lucky 15 Betting Strategy That Works: +EV Betting

I’ve only ever seen one lucky 15 betting strategy that works, for mathematical reasons.

This article explains all with a simplistic explanation, including why it works.

But before we get stuck in, let’s make sure all readers are on the same page here.

What is a Lucky 15 Bet?

A lucky 15 bet is a multiple bet. There are 4 betting selections with 15 possible outcomes including 4 single bets, 6 double bets, 3 trebles and one four-fold accumulator bet. Combined, they provide 15 betting lines with individual payouts.

The image below explains each line clearly.

If you track each selection from left to right you will see the individual bets they are included in, from top to bottom.

Now let’s move on to the lucky 15 betting strategy….

A Mathematically Proven Lucky 15 Betting Strategy:

Bookmakers love punters who routinely place accumulator-style bets because usually, they are from long-term losing bettors. Before I became a full-time professional Betfair trader and sports bettor, I would chat with lads at work about betting. Pretty much all of them would bang on a football accumulator each week and hand over a few quid to the bookies.

Every now and again someone would win £100, £90, £50. Act like they were a betting genius and then go on to give it all back in the following weeks, plus a little extra.

When we look at the standard double, treble or four-fold bet with a bookmaker they are usually very bad value. However, this strategy is the opposite. It ensures the player gets a bigger payout than the bet is really worth.

Like all good betting strategies, it is about putting the odds in our favour. Getting higher odds than they should be. If you can consistently back a bet at even money (odds of 2.0) that realistically should be priced at 1.9 ( win probability of 52.6%), you are going to win in the long term.

Taking Advantage of Lucky 15 Bonuses

Pairing this strategy with the lucky 15 bonuses and insurances that some bookies offer is a huge edge. It is a very smart way of approaching lucky 15 betting as a strategy. It is a good way extend the value we have gained from the original selections.

Different bookmakers offer various boosts or insurance on lucky 15 bets like the one shown below:

They offer the Betfred lucky 15 bonus 3x the odds if you only get one winner on your lucky 15 bet. Various shops will also have bonuses or insurance terms that you can take a look at.

This YouTube video explains the strategy with some visual examples in just 5 minutes:

Finding Value Selections

One of the best ways to find value for a lucky 15 bet is on the horse racing markets. The best strategy as outlined in the video above is to look at early morning odds with a bookmaker.

We are looking to find horses which are shortening in price on the exchanges. That can be backed with bookmakers at slightly higher odds. When we do this, we are getting value on our selections as the betting exchanges are a much better representation of what the true odds really are. An additional advantage of taking these value selections in the morning is they often continue to shorten in odds.

Four selections were taken in the video example.

Miss Dolly Rocker at 2.375 – Betfair Starting Price = 1.64 (Rule 4 withdrawal on this race)
Eligible at 11.00 – Betfair Starting Price = 7.4
Jack Daniel at 11.00 – Betfair Starting Price = 5.05
Dark Side Of Thunder at 5.5 – Betfair Starting Price = 4.1

Example of Value

The value of the lucky 15 bet taken at the odds backed added up to £2643. Using the Betfair starting odds (a good representation for the true odds) for each horse the total value of this lucky 15 bet was £683. Giving the morning punter an additional £1960 in profit compared to some backing at starting odds.

Horse racing is not the only sport where you can consistently find value however it is probably the easiest. The fact that there are multiple horse racing meetings every single day also means there is plenty of opportunity to use this strategy. This is also a strategy you can also use for an each way lucky 15 bet.

If you were looking to make profitable lucky 15 bets on football, my advice would be to look on selections on a Thursday or Friday for the upcoming weekend. Focusing on lower league football is a good strategy as this is usually where bookmakers are sleeping on adjusting their odds.

Will I Get Limited Using A Lucky 15 Strategy?

Taking value in the form of accumulator bets often helps you look like a recreational bettor when it comes to bookmakers profiling your account. However, if you hit a big winner and a bookmaker you are using chooses to take a deeper look at your betting history. Unfortunately, it is likely that your online accounts may be restricted or stake limited.

There’s not a lot we can do about bookmakers limiting accounts. This will happen with any profitable betting strategy that you use. A lucky 15 strategy for horse racing, football, and greyhounds is no different

Placing your lucky 15 bets inside a land-based shop is the workaround, although I appreciate that requires more effort. In the UK there are plenty of betting shops where you can place lucky 15 bets in such as Betfred, Paddypower, Ladbrokes and William Hill. Shop staff won’t even realize this Lucky 15 betting strategy is being used in most cases. They expect punters who place Acca-style bets are just recreational players.

It would only be when you land a huge winning bet that they investigate your betting a little bit further.