Reading a Market: When Everything Clicks Into Place
Reading a market can often be tricky, but every now and then, everything aligns perfectly. These are the golden moments in Betfair trading.
Recognising when one is about to happen and executing well can often be the difference between making £300 on an afternoon or £600.
It’s crazy how a single big profit can provide such a positive boost to your mindset in Betfair trading. I’ve talked about this before, but situations like this are proof of how much of an edge mindset provides.
What Do I Mean by This?
The image above is a great illustration. Betfair trading, particularly in horse racing markets, revolves around market sentiment. It’s like a domino effect—spotting positions as they build tension is key to anticipating a move. Being able to do that is the sweet spot in trading.
I’ve highlighted a few key aspects of this trade:
- The front two horses in the market have similar, short prices. At these levels, the market rarely stays static for long.
- Often, the prices of the two will repel each other. In this instance, I took a small position of £200 on each after some careful entry to get the best price possible. As my assumptions were confirmed, I added to the position to maximize profit.
Betfair Graphs: Use With Caution
The Betfair trading graphs can be misleading because they don’t follow set time scales—the more volume matched, the more they adjust. So, it’s never a good idea to base a trade solely on them.
Here’s what stood out in this case:
- On the left: The favourite’s price stagnated for a few minutes and began to drift out. It’s also trading around 3.0, which is one of my favourite lay prices.
- On the right: The second favourite showed some support, with its price tightening as more back bets were placed.
I’d been watching the market closely for a few minutes and noticed that the general market sentiment was in line with my trading positions. The market overview history confirmed this. The market had also reached the stage of maturing, where prices often start heading in their “true direction”—a positive factor for making a move.
Multiple Factors, Not Just One!
This trade underscores an important principle: don’t ever base a trade on just one factor—unless it’s something undeniable like a horse throwing off its jockey!
Here’s what contributed to my decision:
- General market sentiment was in my favour.
- Prices weren’t in a static range for a race of this nature, suggesting potential movement.
- The favourite showed signs of weakness and looked likely to drift.
- The second favourite was receiving some support.
- There was still time left for a move to evolve.
Even with all these factors aligning, I wasn’t fully confident to increase my stakes significantly. Betfair trading has a way of catching you out if you get too excited. Working into the position, despite losing a few ticks, felt like the right decision here. Shortly after, the second favourite’s price crumbled, while the favourite’s price drifted out, bounced around, and then came back.
Learning from the Experience
If you spot a strong opportunity like this but don’t end up with a decent result—or even make a profit—don’t be too hard on yourself. Being overly critical is counterproductive in Betfair trading.
Sometimes, a situation pays you in experience rather than money. And that’s okay! Use it as a stepping stone to improve. As the saying goes: fail forward.
Related: How Betfair Trading Works