Cheltenham: Trading Public Perception (and Reaction)

Willie Mullins

It’s that unique week that sports traders don’t get much time to practice again; Cheltenham Festival.

For some, it’s bound to be a bumpy learning curve. For others, their most profitable trading experience to date. Which of those depends largely on your trading style and appetite for patience.

If it’s your first time trading Cheltenham, I’d advise checking out this previous article.

However, in this article, I want to draw your attention to an interesting point about the festival regarding trainers. With Gordon Elliot out of the mix, it could be more interesting than usual.

Obvious Market Support?

Last year Willie Mullins had 7 winners at the Cheltenham Festival, several of which were on the same day. You may recognise some of the winning names…

  • Ferny Hollow
  • Min
  • Concertista
  • Burning Victory
  • Saint Roi
  • Monkfish
  • Al Boum Photo

You can check their historical in-play prices by clicking here.

But why is this relevant?

Each year at Cheltenham there are a handful of big winners and many many losers. Knowing which horses are likely to win (without inside info) is largely a guess. However, market psychology isn’t.

Again and again, similar patterns emerge.

Patterns around leading horse racing trainers on a roll are one pattern to look out for, especially if the mainstream media is drawing attention toward them.

You see if a trainer has already built up a list of winners at the festival then the public begin to put their money down on the next one regardless, as a result, the bookies slash their prices and the commentators start to talk about it. On top of this, there are usually a lot of doubles, trebles and accumulator tickets with large liabilities outstanding for bookmakers.

It’s not necessarily a sure-fire trade, but in the majority of these instances, you will see a change in sentiment on the following runner. Largely it depends on the trainer or jockey involved.

Tip: look out for bookies dumping liability on the exchanges when this happens.

Locking in Trading Profits:

The key to locking in a substantial profit in these situations is to be swift and decisive with your entry. There’s no benefit to hanging around and thinking about the trade as it develops, the best window of opportunity will be gone relatively quick.

Getting a jump on the broader public with a sizeable stake is important. That said, there’s a difference between taking an aggressive position on a developing mover with confirming signals to taking a punt. Make sure the money is already filtering on in a disproportionate manner…

Related: Beginners Mini-Guide to Cheltenham Trading

3 thoughts on “Cheltenham: Trading Public Perception (and Reaction)

      1. Thank you. But give me an email please. It’s nothing secret – maybe you make a topic out of it but I ‘d like to put my question to you in private first.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *