Too good to be true? Maybe not. A slightly more serious post (with some heavy-duty reflection).
There hasn’t been one like this for a while, but I suspect this post is likely to stir up a little controversy and raise some thought provoking points. A recent podcast interview left me thinking about a few important points…
In no particular order:
Bookmakers Really Dead this Time?
Betfair started it’s early success with a marketing campaign that declared “death to the bookmaker”. But could this still happen?
Things are changing, and over the last 12 months or so it appears as though a morbid end draws ever closer. Last month just about everyone’s inbox got fragged to high heaven with GDPR updates, you’ve have to be operating out of the stone ages to miss it. However, justiceforpunters.org raised an interesting question in line with this…
GDPR states that everyone has a ‘right to be forgotten’. So, doesn’t that mean anyone that’s currently limited or restricted can ask the bookmaker forgets who they are and start over?
I’m not sure how it plays out, but this could be disastrous for bookmakers. It’s clear that just about all of them are operating from the same position.
That position being:
- Ban or restrict new winners
- Get more customers
- Rinse and repeat
If indeed they do have to forget the winners, they’ll need to tighten up their odds pronto – offering even worse value.
Either way, it doesn’t look good for this old-school way of betting. Betfair seem to have put the boot in again too with their new exchange marketing adverts.
Tell-tale Signs or Confirmation Bias?
I’d love to hear from readers in the comments below, am I imagining this?
I’ve been around a while. I first got involved on Betfair properly in 2009 and quit my job within a couple of years after – but there seems to be pretty heft change recently with regards to public perception. The previously mentioned podcast left me thinking about it…
I started blogging about Betfair trading nearly 8 years ago, back then very few people were interested. This last year though there seems to be heaps of new twitter accounts popping up centred around trading. Some have suggested it’s matched bettors and arbers that have run out of opportunities but I’m not so sure.
Also it’s noteable that the bookies have moved the goalposts (excuse the pun). Whenever I see an offer on my twitter timeline these days it seems to be accompanied with something along the lines of: “we reserve the right to withdraw this offer at any time and without warning”.
I mean, how is that even allowed?
Is this a sign that exchanges are on the up whilst bookmakers promotion and business is taking a kicking? Let me know your opinion in the comments below.
So EASY it’s Wrong?!
During the business of betting podcast Jake, the owner asked me:
“What are your views on sports arbitrage? is it a problem?”
I’m gonna level with you here, obviously the podcast is a global podcast for the sports betting industry. I completely see why this is a hot-topic, and perhaps asked in that manner. But I really struggle to see any other view than it’s an integral part of the industry.
Going back to the previous point, bookies hate it. I get that – and if I were a bookmaker I’d hate people that arb too… but it’s just life isn’t it?
Much like trading the markets, get it wrong – you get reprimanded, skinned, taken to the cleaners. Why do the betting industry, or bookmakers for that matter expect it to be any different?!
Others have made comparisons but; does any other company complain and spit feathers when consumers buy their products at a discount price or take their promotional offer to then re-sell it on eBay? Hell no!
This was pretty much my angle of answer of course, but why would arbitrage betting ever be labelled as wrong?
This next point may not appear interesting to all, but I’d argue it’s one of the most important things trading has ever taught me. It applies to everything…
Short-term thinking is the super-fast route to the poor house. Betting does a great job of highlighting this in most instances, the exceptions being the aforementioned arbitrage and matched betting. They have their limits though, respectively.
In many cases, traders want to be on the other side of a short-term thinkers bet. Spontaneity, irrationality, shortsightedness are all words that spring to mind. Unfortunately it’s always the same people that get sucker-punched time and again. Hopefully in highlighting this it will save at least one person a daft mistake.
The reality is; if you set out with a longer-term agenda, with some kind of format to achieving success those short-term results arrive somewhat quicker. I for one wish I had realised this earlier, although it’s one of those things you can’t fully embrace until you’ve done it! Trust me, take the longer path and set a realistic plan – you’ll get there faster.