Footie Trading Preview: UEFA Euro 24 Winners?

With a month of back-to-back football from afternoon to evening, we just need some good weather for the beer garden.

Who would have thought England would be going into a major tournament as favourites too…

It doesn’t feel like the World Cup was two years ago; it actually feels like a few months! We had great success trading the World Cup, and hopefully, the Euros go just as well. With the right football trading strategies there’s big-money to be had.

I’m gonna run through a few thoughts on the outright market as well as the opening games this weekend, just like the World Cup it would be shrewd to keep stakes reasonably low over the weekend while we see every side start their tournament and then go from there.

Euros Outright Market – A Football Trading Perspective

The way the draw has worked out for England, it’s been pretty kind. They seem to have a pretty “free” run until they should (in theory) meet France. It is odd seeing England as the favourites, it’s not surprising that the bookies really want to take them on and they’ve drifted all week. Plenty of layers on the Exchanges too. I much prefer France at 5.3 compared to England at 5.0. They have a stronger squad and came so close to glory at the World Cup too. They are strong in every area of the pitch; from the top of the market they look the best option to me.

In my opinion, they should be favourites…

My next best is Spain at 10.0. Portugal have been a very popular choice this week, they have had a lot of momentum in the market. I feel the value is gone at 8.2 now. I know everyone has their own opinion on how to predict a draw and rightly so, but Spain top their group and reach the Semi-Finals. If things work out, Portugal will meet them there and I prefer Spain at slightly bigger odds. On the face of things they have a difficult group with Italy and Croatia in it, but both those sides are there for the taking in my opinion. Italy were off the pace in qualifying against England and Croatia have an ageing midfield now. Surely Modric has to slow down eventually!? Spain have nice xG figures and they should perform very well, happy with a position at 10.0.

Euros Outright trades; France at 5.3 and Spain at 10.0.

Germany v Scotland 8pm Friday

Germany host Euro 2024 and they look strong here. Hansi Flick was a disaster, and they looked in a terrible place when he left. Because they gained automatic qualification for this tournament they have been playing friendlies, all the optimism is based on friendly wins over France and Netherlands. Friendlies aren’t worth much though. I’m definitely taking a very cautious approach with Germany heading into the tournament although this should be a simple task for them. I reckon Scotland approaches this game with negativity to begin with and I’m going to have a small trade in the earlier part of the first half.

Scotland will be nervous – their first major tournament for a while. I’m interested in the early Over 2.5 goals trade. I think things will move quicker than normal with a very aggressive start from the German side.

Hungary v Switzerland 2pm Saturday

Hungary are an up-and-coming side in my view. Their figures are good, they topped their qualifying group (was pretty easy to be fair) and did well in the Nations League in a group with England in it. Switzerland fluffed their lines a little in qualifying; nothing major but they finished second behind Romania. It wasn’t a drama given the top two went through.

I’m going to put my head on the block here and say Switzerland are a side to be against. I’m happy to lay them at 2.3 here; that’s too short in my opinion. Another thing worth considering here is that this is a huge game for both sides – Germany will be expected to top the group and this game might go a long way to decide who finishes second. I’m not keen on Germany, but they are better than the three sides in their group. With this game being so big, I do expect a cagey start and the early Under 2.5 goals trade is a very nice option at 1.72.

Spain v Croatia 5pm Saturday

Group B begins on Saturday afternoon with Spain v Croatia. Spain are trading bang on 2.0 at the moment; I do fancy them to top this group and go deep into the tournament so the 2.0 makes appeal to me. Croatia have an ageing midfield at this rate but you could have said that heading into the World Cup too! The music has to stop at some point however, and maybe this is finally the time that father time catches up with Modric. The sides met in the Nations League Final, and we needed penalties to find a winner there with the game finishing 0-0. We could get quite a similar game here, and I expect a slow start again.

Under 2.5 goals has a nice starting point at 1.79. I’m happy to open a trade on that once the game settles after the opening five minutes. I’ll make a decision at half-time if we’re level, but if the stats back it up I’d be happy to look to get involved on Spain in the second half.

Italy v Albania 8pm Saturday

Italy aren’t a side to trust but if you like xG figures then you really want to be against Albania here. Italy are hot favourites at 1.43. I’m keen to build a position on them at the right moments. Albania only lost once in qualifying; them topping their group was the biggest surprise of qualifying to be honest. However, they actually conceded more shots than they had throughout qualifying and a little stat like that just highlights how lucky they were to top their group. It was probably a reflection of how poor Poland were that they only managed third! Italy win easily here for me, and I think they can run up a score or cover handicaps. In an ideal world the first 30mins will be goalless and we might get some fancy prices on Italy -1.5 and -2.5 goals.

Poland v Netherlands 2pm Sunday

As I mentioned above, Poland was involved in a qualifying group with Albania, and they were desperate. They have been poor for a while to be honest, they needed penalties to get past Wales in the playoffs and they are on my list of sides that I want to take on in this tournament.

Netherlands are trading 1.59 and this game will be about picking the right moments to get on the Netherlands. Another interesting angle is the early Under 2.5 goals trade at 1.87. Netherlands have been very cagey in big games, and they created very little at the World Cup with their negative approach. In my opinion, they will win in the end, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 at half-time, so I’m happy to trade accordingly.

Slovenia v Denmark 5pm Sunday

These two were in the same qualifying group and we had a 1-1 and a 2-1 in two reasonably close games. I wouldn’t put anyone off a goals bet here, but that’s not my style and the stats don’t back much up here. I reckon Denmark win; they are trading 1.83 but with England playing later I don’t mind missing this game from a trading point of view! Nothing jumps off the page and we have a month of football ahead, sometimes the best trade is no trade.

Serbia v England 8pm Sunday

Can England really win this time?

I’m heading out for this one so once again, no trade is the best trade. With England tournament favourites they have all the pressure. I’m dead keen to see how they perform, and what tactics Gareth Southgate opts to go for. England have so much attacking talent, if they are boring we can only blame the manager! They are 1.51 at the moment – they get the job done but it’s hard to make the case that they aren’t fair value at the odds. The market has this one right; just enjoy the game.

Related: Euro 2024 – Who Will Be The Top Goalscorer?

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