Yesterday, pre-race trader watched money pour onto Pittsburg in the 12:15 Amateur Jockeys Handicap at Catterick...
For punters in the know, it’ll be a good Christmas as Pittsburg landed the gamble beating all other horses in the race. For traders, it was an active race to trade!
…but for everyone else it wouldn’t appear to be all that fair.
Robbing The Public?
Timeform shows the official Betfair starting price at 5.2 (4/1). The industry starting price was 3.75 (11/4) and the forecast show was 33/1 in the racing post. Looking at the horse’s previous form, it had been pulled up three times this year.
The official form shows a historical record of 00PP0P.
I posted the official Betfair chart to Twitter as the race went in-play. Shown below…
It’s hard to disagree with Darren, isn’t it?
What about all the people that bet on this race in good faith. There was no good reason for such a gamble in the public domain. None to justify backing the horse for the final 10 minutes solid anyway. Given that it had been pulled up three times and placed 10th at best the whole year you’d expect those show odds of 33/1 or 25/1 to be relatively accurate.
Trading Active Money
For sports traders, this is a notable lesson about form. It can be helpful to understand the form but you shouldn’t be placing trades based upon expected performances.
Focusing on reacting to live information instead of predicting the future is key, as I explain in this recent blog. Money talks the loudest and it’s one of the most reliable indicators around.
The media love to pump up and glorify these gambles and I don’t expect they’ll stop any time soon. It’s just part of racing. So unless you’re fortunate enough to get the inside information, you’d be better off learning how to read the traded volumes.
At the end of the day, the money doesn’t lie!