Football without fans isn’t as fun, we all know that. However, the new staggered Premier League schedule is brilliant for trading.
With all the games all shaped apart and not bumping into each other, it allows for some excellent pre-match football trading opportunities.
This is a simple football trading strategy that anyone can do pre-match. I’ve gone through my thought process and trading strategy in my latest YouTube.
Check it out:
Pre-Match Football Trading on Betfair
Pre-match football trading is a very low-risk strategy on Betfair exchange. It’s not often that the market moves a lot before kick-off, meaning that you’re only searching for a handful of ticks. This means you can increase stakes, and potentially increase profit. To find the right times to enter the market, you need to do your research correctly.
That’s why I use Infogol. Before the game kicks off, I’m looking for where the market sentiment is going to be. To coin a popular phrase, what way the wind is blowing with regard to the average football punter. What team are they more likely to want to back, and what that will do to the market.
The stats that I like to focus on Infogol are usually:
- Recent form
- Some of the shot maps
- Average goal time
- Likely team line-ups
- Possession stats
- And lastly, the overall public feeling towards the team at the moment
This fixture was ideal because Aston Villa has started the season with four straight wins. They were playing a team who have come up from the Championship and their recent 7-2 win over Liverpool made a lot of headlines. They had home advantage, although no with fans it’s up for debate if that’s still massively important, the overall picture looked like the public would back Aston Villa here.
With all that in mind, I opened a trade on Aston Villa, and you can see just how I played the situation in the YouTube video above.
Football is a very passionate sport with some excellent fans. There are a lot of edges available, pre-match football trading is good because it’s a low-risk strategy, but there a lot of other good strategies to employ in-running.
The two main factors I like to focus on when football trading:
- Having a set strategy ready when the opportunity presents itself
- Focusing on finding the key moments to enter the market
Let me explain them a little more. Most football punters will just look for the final result; ie what team will win. I am not interested in what team will win. I just want to identify value in certain parts of the game. So if the game goes for 90 minutes, there might be a perfect ten minutes to enter and exit the market; outside those ten minutes, I am not trading.
In the YouTube example, the right time to strike was when the weight of money arrived for Aston Villa. You can see why I topped up by another £500! Another classic example could be average goal times. If you see the average goal time at 35+ minutes for both sides playing, the odds are tilted in your favour for an early trade or scalp on under 2.5 goals. If the stats on Infogol suggest teams like to score late and the xG shot map looks very good in-play, then the odds are in your favour for a late goal. You are essentially using the evidence to guide you on when to enter the market and use the correct strategies for each fixture.
With the new Premier League fixture list so well staggered with the kick-off times, there’s never been a better time to trade football…