On average the Premier League sees just over 2.5 goals per game. So, how do we profit from that?
In my latest YouTube video, I explain the strategy behind trading the Under/Over 2.5 goals market on Betfair:
- 0:00 Under 2.5 goals meaning in Football
- 2:58 How to find hidden values in 2.5 goals trading
- 4:46 Anticipate key points to win consistently
Trading The 2.5 Goals Market On Betfair
The Under/Over 2.5 goals market is one of the most liquid trading markets on Betfair. The recreational punter is always interested in this market, so there’s a lot of opportunities to get value prices. To do this you need to have the right strategy.
The biggest factor in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market is time. There are only 90 minutes in a football game, so the market has to move with time decay. Clearly, the time decay element changes as the game changes. For example, the time decay at 80 minutes is going to be a lot faster than the time decay between the first ten to twenty minutes. Because we know that time decay simply has to happen, we can use this to our advantage.
This is where the average goal times come into play in quite a big way. Just 30% of Premier League games see a goal in the first 15 minutes. If you’re looking to scalp the under 2.5 goals side of the book; you need to avoid these games. How do we do that you might ask – the answer is research.
The key is doing the right research to give us the best chance of successfully trading the market. We need to find the optimal games and times to enter (and exit) from our trades. What we are essentially looking for a window of opportunity within the market. We don’t need to get the final score right, just find the right window within the game to enter and exit the market, banking ticks.
How to Research Over Under 2.5 Goals Effectively…
There are three big areas that I like to focus on when doing my research for this market, they are:
- Likely goal times
- Recent form (xG)
- Average scoring rate
I’m looking for hidden nuggets within the stats that can give me an edge in-play. Remember, to find an edge we need to be looking or seeing things that the average football fan is missing. This is difficult, but it’s easier in football as there’s a lot of interest and a lot of casual money within each market.
To find these stats, I use Infogol. In my opinion, the average football fan looks for the wrong things when they are trying to find bets. They are mostly looking at what they think will be the final result. I’m not bothered by the final result – I just want to get into the market at the right time and price, and exit at the right time and price.
For this reason, the average goal times is a big factor. I want to know when a team is likely to score, based on evidence and their style of play.
Let’s look at an example, I picked Chelsea:
As you can see Chelsea’s average goal time last season was 33 minutes, with their average match time coming in at 30 minutes. They had a low volume of goals in the early stages of the game, so they were an ideal candidate for scalping under 2.5 goals if the other team matched their stats.
This is where xG (Expected Goals) also comes into play. I want to make sure that teams are performing in line with their xG over the recent games, perhaps last six fixtures, and see if they are in-form or not. I wouldn’t be overly bothered if they were losing or not – I’d just want to see their xG numbers. Are they creating chances or not. For example, they could have lost their last fixture 1-0 but actually created an xG of 2.45 and been very unlucky not to win.
Check out the YouTube video to see how I put everything together to find the best times to enter the market ahead of time!
Pre-game research is absolutely vital when trading the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, as you will see in the video…