The Premier League returns this weekend, and it’s brilliant to have it back…
Nothing is better than Premier League trading liquidity-wise, the only thing close is the Champions League. It’s generally a good rule of thumb to keep stakes relatively low for the opening three weeks to a month as we settle in. There’s been plenty of transfer business, and I’d want to see how teams are performing too.
It’s actually a catch-22 situation these opening few weeks. The big betting syndicates will likely be sitting out a little, waiting for their databases to be bang on. This means that the markets might offer more value. I generally take the Betfair SP as a true reflection of the actual probability, but that’s less likely in the opening weeks.
For me this best option in the opening few weeks is to form opinions based on how teams performed last season, what adjustments they made to their squad during the summer and then also factor in how they are playing in the early games. I’m going to keep stakes low in these opening few weeks but treat the games just the same as I normally would research-wise.
The best advice during these opening weeks is to take a price if you really think it’s wrong, don’t ignore value, but don’t go balls deep! I know you can never really plan when the opportunity is going to arise for a really good bet – but this is a time to practice a little caution. Then spend a bit of time researching the xG figures after the weekend.
The schedule this week is:
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal 8pm
- Fulham v Liverpool 12.30pm
- Bournemouth v Aston Villa 3pm
- Leeds v Wolves 3pm
- Newcastle v Nottingham Forest 3pm
- Spurs v Southampton 3pm
- Everton v Chelsea 5.30pm
- Leicester v Brentford 2pm
- Manchester United v Brighton 2pm
- West Ham v Manchester City 4.30pm
I also like to keep an eye on the major games around Europe, and we do have some nice games as the Bundesliga returns along with Ligue 1. PSG play Saturday night at 8pm but they will be very short odds, and then Bayern Munich are in action Friday night while Dortmund play Saturday evening at 5.30pm.
I am sure many of you will be very familiar with the trading strategies from the Football Guide, because I am keep stakes low this weekend I’m going to list in bullet points the things I am looking out for this weekend and the angles I want to trade.
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal 8pm Friday. When I look at this game I just can’t have Arsenal at odds on. I know hope is always high at the start of the season, but I can see them having to work very hard to win here and I’ll be waiting to trade their price as it drifts out in the first half, and then early in the second half. The sweet spot here will be if the game is level with 20 minutes to go because then we’ll see acceleration – keep an eye on what they are creating xG wise whether to take that position but this game screams an Arsenal lay to me. If they don’t start on top it will be a very nice tick-nicking opp.
- Fulham v Liverpool 12.30pm Saturday. This won’t be a big position for obvious reasons because Liverpool are so good, but I am interested in the under 2.5 goals early trade here. Fulham were rock solid at the back in the Championship last season conceding less an one goal per game. Their xG conceded was 0.9. Clearly, this is a totally different level so stakes are adjusted for that, but we can see a big drop early starting from a high price too.
- Bournemouth v Aston Villa 3pm Saturday. This appeals as the best 3pm game, not in terms of quality but in betting terms! This game screams the early under 2.5 goals trade – the strategy is on the Football Guide and when I look at the four 3pm games this one appeal as the best option. The other three games don’t really appeal.
- After those three games, I’m very open on the other games for the weekend. I’m going to live trade Everton v Chelsea and see what develops in-play but I have nothing in mind before the off. Everton was poor last year and Chelsea was a bit of a laughing stock during the summer but are still a strong side.
- I have similar thoughts for Sunday’s games – but the Manchester United v Brighton game looks the most interesting. I don’t think United have addressed their issues, and then we have the whole Ronaldo drama too – basically, he’s there now because no other club would take him. That’s a toxic situation, and I am going to keep an eye on their xG figures for the first half because we could see them drift with acceleration in the second half then.
So, a couple of angles there I’m keen to play. It’s great to have the PL back though. After trading this weekend I’m abroad for a break with the family. It’s been a busy few months so a few too many beers and time with the kids at the waterpark is well overdue! I’ll update again after I’ve made a splash.