Volatile markets… Excellent George!

Being aware of volatility alone instantly puts you in a better position…

As I mentioned earlier in the week, it’s always likely to be a fairly quiet one after the festival. However, that doesn’t mean things are impossible. If you’re a Betfair scalper, you probably found it a bit harder than usual, but like I say, it’s far from game over. The markets are just different, and you have to adapt to that! Having a selection of strategies and approaches is always preferable over the long term.

When I’ve spoken to others in the past, I’ve highlighted the fact that different situations require different approaches to achieve the best results—or at least give yourself the best chance of success. Much like a professional runner wouldn’t turn up to a 100m sprint wearing fell running shoes, or a professional cyclist wouldn’t turn up to the Tour de France on a BMX.

It’s similar on Betfair. Having an idea of the kind of volatility a market may produce is important. To do this, you need to understand some of the characteristics of a market. For example, race time: if it’s 9:15 on a Friday night, it’s never going to be very liquid and is therefore likely to be quite volatile. Let’s face it—the majority of people are out having a drink, and what’s happening at Wolverhampton isn’t at the forefront of their minds. On the other hand, as I’ve said in previous articles, a feature race on a Saturday afternoon is likely to be the opposite. Other factors to consider are the number of runners in a race, the quality of the venue, and prize money.

I’ve been monitoring things slightly differently lately. I’m not entirely sure about all the information I’ve gathered yet, but it’s certainly of interest. Here’s a trade from earlier in the week. Trading more volatile races means you may need to be a bit more selective and be prepared to ride the wave a little longer. I didn’t make the best of the moves on offer, admittedly, but the last bit was something few would have seen coming. It seemed like a mixture of a heavy gamble and the big players in the market exaggerating things.

Excellent George was always going to be a mover in this race to some degree. I bailed out when things slowed down at 2.2 and 2.24, but as you can see, it shortened even further. Late on, it hit 1.86, which seemed a little wild. It certainly won’t hurt to keep an eye on Excellent George next time to see if the money comes for him again.