I say it until I’m blue in the face, and have been for years!
But still, it gets ignored…
“It’s mostly about what you don’t do, rather than what you are doing”
This is a snappy post about some trading I did today (Monday 9th December) that will explain exactly why, whilst sharing a few examples.
Monday 9th December Trading:
Normally I’d skip out a Monday this time of year, but with Xmas shopping being the only other option I thought I’d have a dabble (hate it). Knowing it wasn’t likely to be the most fruitful of sessions, I thought I’d document a few observations and explain them to readers.
In short, I want to highlight just why days like today provide the worst trading conditions for pre-race horses. I found myself reigning in the stakes, again and again. Something you just have to do in such conditions. Over-staking reduces your competitive advantage.
With reduced liquidity and the market flitting about more, two things tend to happen:
- trading anxiety increases, leading to impulsive mistakes
- escaping a bad position is harder because there’s less to match against
This can work for or against you, depending on how you trade. However, the overall undercurrent isn’t a positive one. Less money and less matching means less trading opportunity.
It also brings out the sharks, looking to exploit newbies, as explained next…
Shameless plug: this week you can get 3 Months Geeks Toy with the Pre-Race Trading Guide ends the 14th @ 6 pm.
The Most Painful Problem:
For new traders, this problem isn’t always so obvious. So let’s draw your attention to it…
Below are to snapshots from the 13:00 @ Lingfield. The chart in question is for Story of Light. Notice anything funny?
See how the price action has routinely ripped up and down, up and down and then up and down some more. Shortly after (just before the start) a slightly more genuine trend forms…
As some are already aware, as asked in a recent Q & A on YouTube (click to watch) – manipulative bullying goes on in the markets.
Typically this happens when large unmatched bets crash into the market to spook other traders. The chart above depicts is clearly where small sums of money have chased the price up and down. See it?
This kind of behaviour is rife in low-quality betting markets as the bullies can get away with it easier. There’s less genuine fill to catch them out, meaning these market conditions are perfect for them (but not us).
On a Monday, at this time of year (throughout the winter generally) this sets the tone of play in the markets. For them, it’s probably quite lucrative, but it’s just a game of manipulation, not trading a-such. This is why I titled the post ‘the worst possible conditions’.
My Advice to Combat the Problem:
First of all, don’t feed them! The more you interact, the more they’ll come back and the harder they’ll push. Avoid trading too early, reduce the stakes if necessary and spend more time watching these manipulative ways. You might even find it profitable to ride their wave’s while they take all the risk 😉
Related: Video Pack Course & Trader Community
Some really unusual activity on the favourite @ 16:15 today 30-50K being unmatched on favourite then disappearing, what was even stranger to me was the favourite continued to drift big gambler propelling the market? I was really cautious and didn’t get involved either way really glad I didn’t.
Typically it happens every day, Phil. Although in these poor conditions it’s just more noticeable and easier for them to bully others about. A decent environment for learning too when there’s less real money sloshing about…
Thanks Caan, definitely I’ve noticed strange things on a couple maiden’s too, I end up often getting involved in maidens in the last 2 minutes same with novices too. Feels like I often get caught out if I trade early.
Sure, trading early is foolish. If you think about it – you’re trading activity that isn’t really there half the time…
Deep and easy to read content.
Im fairly new to pre off (3 months) and football is more my thing but the only way I make money in the lower quality stuff like monday night all weather is to build positions at the edges of the volume ranges and wait for the mean-reversion. In financial markets we call this dollar cost averaging. Chasing trends was a disaster…I found out the hard way 🙁