Late gambles on Betfair aren’t uncommon, in fact there are usually at least a few each day.
So spotting a gamble can be a HUGE benefit in terms of profit.
It’s equally as important to make sure you don’t get on the wrong side, you’ll get burnt, hard.
Within any market its important to keep an eye on the ‘flow’ of money, if you don’t do that alone it can be incredibly painful.
There are various ways of spotting a ‘potential’ gamble, which is helpful but not always an obvious indicator.
The BIGGEST opportunities come when, what you’re ‘expecting’ starts to happen and heaps of cash appear in one direction (with you getting on first).
Looking at the graph above is one such situation. From the traded volume bars at the bottom of the graph you’ll see there has been a steady trickle of money, most of which was matched in the last ten minutes.
Unfortunately there isn’t a set time axis on the Betfair graph, which can make things a bit confusing. The last ten minutes makes up for half of this graph.
In that last ten minute the price spikes out, possibly while the market is still quite thin, and volatile. Before steadily coming back in, as volume picks up. Although more notably as the real flow of money starts, the price action is pretty much one way!
A bit of a gamble you might say…Within the last 4 and 1/2 minutes the most volume was matched and the price went from 4.0 to 3.35. Not the biggest move ever seen, although it wasn’t the weakest race either.
All these factors need to be considered, if you’re to make larger profits. However the thing that is quite noticeable from the graph, if you was to be watching around 3 minutes to post, there has been a significant amount of volume matched (and still it’s heading in one direction)
Would you consider it to be a 50/50 chance it should continue? probably not. On opening this race (shortly after trading the last) this is a one of those things that stand out, making it a very quick spot.
Something to bear in mind when looking at the charts like this though is the amount of time left to post. Liquidity peaks and troughs at certain points within any market, late on there can be a bit of a snap-back. In this instance only a couple of ticks, but worth bearing in mind.
This week the markets have been pretty stable, on the whole its been a pleasure to trade. I’m sure it’ll continue for some time yet, as it does each year. It’s nice as there is always less pressure to perform and more opportunity on offer (and great if you’re just getting into trading Betfair). With the markets like that, it allows that extra bit of confidence to put my foot down! although on the flip side, it’s always hard to crack on and get them bigger results up with the nice weather in the beer garden!
This weekend looks to be pretty decent again with another manic bank-holiday no doubt… just watch out for the scheduling overlaps!