We saw a massive move on the Aston Villa v Liverpool FA Cup game today ahead of their fixture on Friday night.
Aston Villa went from trading around 3.5 to trading 7.0 in a matter of minutes. Liverpool shot down to 1.5 from 2.2. How many times do you see a 70 tick move pre-off on football?
Just check out these Betfair charts below..
So, what caused the massive move?
Aston Villa came out this afternoon and announced that they had a “significant” outbreak of Covid19 at their club with their training ground closed. As the news broke, Betfair traders were quick to react to the news and take the huge value on offer.
The Biggest Football Trading Edge On Betfair In 2021?
The question was asked above about what would cause a 70 tick move pre-off in football and the answer is very little. So, thinking about it – is following the Covid19 news now a huge edge for this year? I believe it is – what else is going to give you the same amount of movement, and also offer huge value at the same time. It’s clear that Aston Villa are really going to struggle given the situation.
Along with this, there is very limited downside. The biggest negative from a betting point of view is that the game is postponed but then once it’s not played within three days all bets are void. Given the Covid rules, it’s unlikely to be played within three days too.
For anyone not sure of the T&C’s on situations like that, this is from the Betfair website:
“If a match starts but is later abandoned or postponed and Betfair believes that the match will not have been completed by 23:59 (local time) on its scheduled start date, then all markets, with the exception of any unconditionally determined markets, will be void unless Betfair has knowledge that the match has been rescheduled to be played within three days of its original start date. If Betfair does have knowledge that the game will be played within three days and the game is played within three days, then all bets will stand except if the match is restarted from the beginning. If the match is restarted from the beginning then all bets matched before the market went in-play will stand, but any bets placed in-play will be void, except for any bets placed in-play on markets which have been unconditionally determined, which will stand.”
This is definitely an angle I will be trying to take advantage of as we head into 2021. I saw the news three minutes after it broke and Liverpool sat at 1.6 – now a couple of hours later there is £10,000+ waiting to be matched at 1.4 trying to get on Liverpool. Realistically you need to react within the first three minutes at least, but there’s still value there. It’s not a case of just having ten seconds after the news breaks. I feel this will be a very nice edge for 2021 and something to add to your portfolio.
Trading Team News
Trading team news is always a big area of football trading, and it doesn’t take much to master. Last night I caught an excellent pre-match trade on Man City against Man United in their Carabao Cup semi-final. I expected strong teams given the sides can rest players at the weekend in the FA Cup, and there was massive traded volumes on City given their recent positive performances looking at their xG numbers. Everything pointed to a big move, and I talked through the trade on YouTube: