Diversifying….. Saturday afternoon football trading

Last updated June 24th, 2014

So if you read the last post you’ll of seen I’ve turned my hand to a bit of football trading this last week or so! …..and im becoming increasingly fascinated by it. It’s only because of my lack of interest in football I’d not looked earlier, I think I could end up wishing i had earlier on with my recent thoughts on it. The markets behave a bit differently and getting filled can take a bit longer but it’s not a reason to give up on it, the main thing that interests me is once I have a consistently profitable strategy I can start to climb the staking ladder.

Here’s today’s results! … a bit of beginners luck ?


All matches were traded with a maximum of £10 liability at any one time excluding the St Mirren v Hibernian game where I used a maximum of £5 liability (I did this because I noticed liquidity was significantly poorer).

So on that basis the St Mirren game nearly yielded a profit of 100% prior to the commission reductions. Where as Cardiff v stoke 87% and Newcastle v Swansea returned 80%. The two loosing trades were Middlesborough v Millwall lost -26% and Nottm Forest v Birmingham -6%.

Overall in relation to the liability risked on trades today returned a profit of 235% ! …. if that’s to be a regular thing I’ll be chuffed!


Above is the graph from the Stoke game, the rate of time decay is something that I find interesting. I think one of the next steps for me is to look into some stats for the teams as it’s likely to have a knock on effect to such things.

Thanks to the couple of people who emailed me about the football trading, its good to hear from some others that know a bit more! If there are any really good stats sites any of you recommend I’d like to hear. Hopefully over time I can make this pay well!


10 thoughts on “Diversifying….. Saturday afternoon football trading

  1. Hello Caan!

    How are you? I am a big fan of your blog! Did you open the trades in first or second half? If you say the liability was so low I think it was at the end of second half! Is it right? Did you trade watching the games in live on TV or you think is not necessary? I hope you can tell me something!

    Congratulations for the blog! The best!! 😀

    1. Hey Rocio …. I entered in the first half on all of them i think.. maybe half time on one! … Didnt watch any of them 🙂

  2. Those nice rate of decay graphs are why people love to think they can successfully trade football, mainly because there’s so few goals in a match they usually avoid those occasions where the odds crash in or out. Trouble is you can’t avoid them forever and you will get hit . Unless you factor those into your strategy you’ll soon be stuffed, I’ve always thought of football trading more as gambling just because those defining points are game changers unlike horses where pre off nothing that drastic will occur.

    If you can come up with something pre kick off I’d imagine the fact you can scale up large amounts means you don’t need as many ticks but in running I don’t hold out much hope. Always worth trying new things though, I recently set up some automated stuff on the nags and Aus racing I’d thought of doing for a while, doesn’t make much a market but so many markets it turns me over 4 figure sums each week, only wish I’d done it earlier now 🙂

  3. Have you tried LTD? Any comments on that? I`ve tried it on few matches and its ok but odds dont move much if underdog scores first and then favourite scores and it end up draw, is worst case scenario. But if you do match selection well, then it can be good I think

  4. Hi can,

    I’m new to trading and was thinking if l can trade in the mornings from about 9am till 1pm I know the aus horse market are open please help thank you


    1. Hi Mushtaq – there is an aditional charge for the aus racing i believe so i dont bother myself. the evening racing is on now so there is plenty more of an evening!

  5. Pepe,

    LTD is becoming much more tighter these days with margins becoming a lot less so game selection is crucial.

    A few websites that you maybe interested in Caan with regards to football trading – FTSincome and Goal Profits.

    Both great services where a lot can be learnt.

    With regards to Stats and making systems Soccerstato as endorsed by FTSincome is a fantastic tool and can simplfy things to a few clicks picking out your selections for the day.

  6. Get yourself over to Goal Profits Caan. If you seriously want to make a go of it with football and you want an unrivaled stats database then it is second to none and run by one of the most genuine guys out there. Minimal monthly fee but saves me literally hours putting stats together when they are all there on one page.

  7. Very interesting post. I get the feeling there is lots of money in the football markets on betfair but you really have to know your stuff to make a go of it.

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