Think the Premium Charge killed Betfair? You’re probably not alone…
Betfair once had a great opportunity to dominate the betting industry, being the primary betting platform of the future. So, where did it go wrong?
As I’ve said before, betting exchanges make perfect sense! It’s the best outcome for the customer, be it trading or punting. You can get better prices nearly all the time, larger bets are possible and your account isn’t going to be closed.
So why haven’t they blown everyone else out the water?
From the speed at which Betfair took off it looked extremely likely, but of course the exchange model doesn’t give the company and its shareholders the fast-cash they want. The very same reason that; although the exchange made them famous, they now force as much custom as possible to the sports book…
Adding the Premium Charge didn’t do the company’s reputation a lot of good either, but hey that only affects the minority of winners right?
If you’ve been trading any length of time, Betfairs premium charges and behaviour towards exchange users will be old news. But much like in any betting market; with change comes opportunity.. hopefully the Matchbook trading conference yesterday was the start of some longer-term change!
I know plenty wanted to attend the Matchbook trading conference but couldn’t, be it for the price of a ticket or geographical location. Here’s a quick run-down on how the day went.
Matchbook Trading Conference – Prof Leighton V Williams
The day was kicked off with a particularly interesting slot from Professor V Williams. Much was covered about bias’s and behaviour that I have read about elsewhere. However, having spent quite a bit of time in the Tennis markets just lately I found what he had to say about prospect theory and frames of reference very interesting.
Just recently I have noticed the tennis player Simona Halep (and im sure there are many others) has a routine of leading a game 40-0 only to find the following few points are given away in quick succession. During the talk it left me thinking about her own frame of reference. It’s something I’m going to look into the data for further as, for anyone that’s ever traded tennis you will know there is extremely small downside with a large potential upside at such points. At points in a match where there is pressure this would be of particularly interesting.
Matchbook Trading Conference – Matthew Benham
It was a pleasure to hear Matthew Benham deliver his views in such a straight-talking manner.
After spending a while talking about his football club (Brentford FC) it was quite sobering to hear his best advice for someone starting out betting or trading was to “get some good psychology books”.
I guess it doesn’t matter how good your data or fundamental reason for a trade or bet is, if you don’t have the right psychological approach things are to get messy.
Hearing Matt Piper (@puntdotcom) say he still regularly goes “off piste” when trading made me think, no matter what level you are trading at there will always be them variables to deal with psychologically.
Also, depending on the sport that you’re betting or trading on. It’s just as important to think about the psychological impact situations have on those involved (for example a tennis player at match point).
Matchbook Trading Conference – Dan Weston (Tennis ratings)…
Unfortunately I missed a fair chunk of Dan Westons pitch as I was still talking to Peter Webb following a coffee break. The tail end though, was extremely interesting. Having the amount of data Dan has at your disposal when trading is always going to be of great use. You’ll know what I mean particularly if you trade womens tennis!
Having a detailed outlook on each players personal behaviour, particularly under pressure is very interesting. Doubling this information up, along with price action knowledge can provide a real kick to confidence. It’s definitely something I’ll be looking to peruse in the coming months.
Finding an ideal entry point in tennis markets is relatively easy, knowing how to maximize your position and of course limit risk is key!
Matchbook Trading Conference – Summary
Overall I’d say the day was a pretty big success. If Matchook trading will a take off is another thing with their current commission structure.
Either way, it might give Betfair or Betdaq the incentive to make some sizeable changes. It certainly provided a great opportunity for the trading community to get together in person for once! supposed to everyone hiding away in their various offices.
Highlights from the Matchbook Trading Conference
If it could be arranged, would you attend an event like this? If so what would you consider a fair price for tickets? Comment below!