I’ve lost count of how many times I see the same questions asked; what’s the ‘secret’ ingredient? the one thing? a solid edge?
Of course the answer is easy – value.
But reaching a point where you know what’s valuable, where it’s to be found, possibly when and how it will look are far deeper. There’s a lot involved… Sadly, nobody wants to hear that last bit. They just want the ‘secret sauce’.
Let’s get a close to that offering as possible, spilling a few thought-provoking points on route…
The BEST Edge:
To win consistently you must have an ‘edge’ over the rest of the markets players. Simple.
Unfortunately, getting the upper hand on a consistent basis isn’t quite so easy. Mainly because there are so many variables that need to be considered.
As you may suspect, there are some incredibly simple ways to make money through betting. The kind of methods that people ask for day-in, day-out. The problem being; they’re in high demand, and often controlled by a handful of people. For example; court-side betting. All you have to do is bet on the event, as it happens, ahead of everyone at home – winner.
In reality, beating those who do this, isn’t going to be very easy. It’s half the reason this opportunity constitutes such a great edge – because it’s not available to everyone…
Much like in business, when a company manages to monopolise their sector, or get a valuable patent. Competition simply fades away.
The point being; it’s not just how good your are at something, or what you know, but what everyone else doesn’t, or can’t do!
A couple of situations you may want to apply this way of thinking to:
- Pre race trading; do you need a substantial gamble? or will a fickle market help your agenda?
- Backing to lay front-runners; do you just need a good leader? or is a weakly paced race as important?
…it can be a helpful insight on many different levels. You just need to think about how the situations work – which is where all the variables and understanding comes in.
You can even apply this type of thinking to the recent Matchbook news…
Future of Exchanges?
There seems to have been a little jostling and activity around exchange popularity the last 12 months or so. Both Matchbook and SMarkets appear to have been pushing for more market share with offers of 0% commission and the like.
But where is all this going? Is it positive for the future of exchanges?
Myself I’m not too sure. It’s no secret that both Matchbook and SMarkets have third party companies that provide liquidity and trade on their exchanges. Is that how they’re making up the numbers? I’ve asked in the past, and been told there’s no conflict of interest between the two – operating independently. Still, it puts me off somewhat.
But recently, despite offering new customers 0% for the rest of the year, Matchbook have introduced a 60% charge for winners. The threshold is pretty low too, far lower than the premium charge. So what’s this all about? Do they want the consistent winners to go away, leaving an edge for their traders? I have no idea, and haven’t seen any statement from them either…
It’s sad to see, as in some respects it just wreaks of the typical betting industry attitude of ‘mugs only please’. For me and many others, that’s not what exchanges are all about.
Personally I can only see this forcing users back to Betfair and Betdaq.
Interested to know what readers think? please discuss in the comments below!
10 thoughts on “THE ULTIMATE EDGE (Everybody Wants it)”
Hi Caan,
Everyone wants your edges, but every situation in the markets is different. l alway think of the old fishing proverb to paraphrase it, you can tell a person how to trade (and be rich for a day) but if a person is prepared to learn how to trade they will be rich everyday.
Got to agree with your sentiments on Matchbook, sounds like their investors want the return they were promised for the liquidity they have provided
Great proverb, Mike!
As long as the Betting exchanges are regulated by the gambling commissions, I don’t see the develop needed happening.
I think you have a fair point. The GC do just seem to be a mouthpiece.
Interesting article, Caan.
Matchbook really shot themselves in the foot with their revenue shafting, sorry, sharing model.
If Betfair had any sense, they would do well to think about their original business model and reduce the PC – after all, previous PC players may return which, in turn, would bring more money into the markets etc.
I’d imagine in a few years time, a decentralised exchange will have arrived and people will have forgotten about Matchbook etc.
I’m not so sure on the decentralised exchange so soon… not a big enough reason for everyone to move over.
From what I have seen you’re not allowed to back horses at Smarkets. They have their market makers protected and are getting even greedier now. 2 ticks off Betfair and matchbooks. Books every day running 98-99% 15
Minutes to off. 0% commission promos are great, but a completely false economy. I’d love to see someone bring it to Betfair, but unfortunately they will always be the best. There is 0 organic money anywhere else and the market makers are making far more net profit than the actual exchanges are.
You’ve been refused bets?
An edge? Well this is not really trading in the true sence but Ive found a good way of making money following the racing on your computer or indeed a fairly safe way if visiting the track this summer is the following, one point staking plan.
lets say we are having a day out at our local course, you have £100 pounds for bets, we are backing favourites….I hear the groans already but bear with me , we have to assume that two out of the seven races will be won by a favourite.
Stake £10 first race , horse loses, stake £20 second race horse loses , we are now £30 down , stake £30 horse wins at 2.5, we are now £15 up, we can stop there of move on to the next race reverting back to £10 stakes .
This system works very nicely during the day over 28 races were you should have 9 winners or so, some of them of course are even money or less some are real beauties at 4/1 the thing is to always revert back to your original stake after a win , dont be tempted to raise your stakes just because the horse you are betting on is odds on, if doing this on your computer during the day stake no more than 3% of your bank for staring bets for a leisurely experience
Hi Mark, have you heard of martingale ?