Semi-Final two sees France take on Morocco in Qatar. As I said yesterday, it’s been a cracking World Cup so far, and maybe we have one shock left? Morocco being here is even a shock! They have been the surprise of the tournament, coming from a group with Belgium and Croatia, followed by knocking out Spain and Portugal!
It was gutting to see Harry Kane miss the late penalty against France, but here we are. As I mapped out in my outright preview, I had France beating England, and then France actually beating Belgium (LOL now!) to get to the Final.
I had a nice trade on Argentina, in hindsight I probably should have had a few quid on France as well as Belgium, but it’s always easy in hindsight isn’t it!
The schedule for Wednesday:
- France v Morocco 7 pm
France v Morocco Trading Options 3 pm:
France are the heavy favourites, as you’d expect really, but let’s not write off Morocco. I’m actually going to keep this short and sharp because I don’t have a very strong trading opinion here. I reckon France will have to work harder than the odds say at 1.59. But do I want to get into a heavy position, laying one of the best teams in the tournament? Not really.
I’d expect a lot of people to write off Morocco here, but they have dealt with Croatia, Belgium, Spain and Portugal. You can’t knock them. At what stage do you have to say that it isn’t luck – it’s just playing solid football. I think the contrast in the xG figures between themselves and Croatia in the other Semi-Final are quite big. Croatia have been pretty lucky at times conceding big xG figures but Morocco haven’t.
Morocco have “only” conceded xG figures of 0.90, 1.23, 0.92, 1.55 and 1.54. Given their fixture list that’s impressive in my opinion. France are at a different level compared to Belgium, Spain and Portugal, but I have max respect for Morocco here.
I’m keeping stakes small, but the best play here looks to be an early under 2.5 goals trade. Morocco have been so solid, and I don’t expect France to play a very open game from the start so I’m happy to get in and out of the goals market quickly. Morocco aren’t a side I want to have a large stake involved in, but their figures are impressive. Can they deal with France? Maybe not, but we can see no goal for the opening 25/30 minutes.