Football

3 Football Betting Strategies Built on FACTS

Football Betting Strategies

Having good football betting strategies is a must if you’re going to be successful.

There’s so much liquidity available on Betfair, you only need a little edge at various stages within the 90 minutes, or pre-off, to make a lot of money trading.

In the below video, I have picked my top three football betting strategies and detailed why they work:

  • Strategy one: Low risk over-reaction trading (3:50 minutes)
  • Strategy two: Targetting safe areas to exploit time decay (8:38 minutes)
  • Strategy three: Parallel market intent (12:56 minutes)

Football Betting Strategy: Reaction Value

When you think about football as a sport, what do you think about? Naturally one of the first things that comes to mind is the fans, the drama and the emotion. And that’s very important when it comes to betting. There is a lot of emotion in football and this spills over into the markets.

Profiting from overreaction is always going to be a massive part of any football trading strategy. There is so much of it, that’s why I picked it as the first strategy to go through in the video.

In a nutshell, at various stages of the game there are ideal times to benefit from an overreaction. This is mainly after a goal when the market hasn’t adjusted enough or more commonly goes too far in with the price and has to move it back a handful of ticks. In the first few seconds after a goal, we see a lot of panic and over-reactive betting. Check out the charts in the video above!

Exploiting Time Decay…

The next strategy is based around time decay. The logic behind time decay is that chance deteriorates over time – it’s as simple as that!

Finding the right moments to implement the strategy is the hard part, which I have discussed within the video. Time decay is straight forward as we know the market will move in one direction, and you need to tie it in with playing intent and motivation on the pitch as to when you enter the market.

The key to this strategy is protecting your bank and looking for what areas offer the best opportunity. You should target times of accelerated decay and focus on minimum exposure. I’ve given a few examples in the video as to when to implement the strategy.

Parallel Intent Strategy:

The last strategy from my top three is parallel intent. So, what does that mean? It’s two markets that are related to the same event and when one changes, the other should change too. Sometimes this is called lateral trading.

A classic example of lateral trading could be Manchester United playing on Sunday and Wednesday, in the game on Sunday Rashford gets injured and it looks like a bad injury. The odds for Wednesday’s game will then have to move to reflect that Untied are missing a key player. This works with a host of different variables, for example a ban for a red card.

This strategy is more or less fastest fingers first, however if you are watching the correct markets at the correct time then you will beat the crowd. Most traders don’t think ahead and don’t have the future markets open and this presents an edge if you can react quickly.

Related: Betfair Trading Courses

One thought on “3 Football Betting Strategies Built on FACTS

  1. Hi Caan,
    Im looking to get into trading football; is your video course pack for £147 completely applicable to football trading or is it more geared to trading horse races?

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