Late gambles on Betfair aren’t uncommon; in fact, there are usually at least a few each day. Spotting a gamble can be a huge benefit in terms of profit. However, it’s equally important to make sure you don’t end up on the wrong side of it—getting caught out can burn you, hard.
In any market, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the flow of money. If you’re not doing that, it can be excruciating.
There are various ways to spot a potential gamble, which can be helpful, though not always an obvious indicator. The biggest opportunities come when what you’re expecting starts to happen, and heaps of cash appear in one direction—especially if you’re able to get in early.
Looking at the graph above, we have one such situation. You can see a steady trickle of money from the traded volume bars at the bottom, most of which was matched in the last ten minutes. Unfortunately, Betfair graphs don’t have a set time axis, which can make things a bit confusing, but in this case, the last ten minutes make up for half of the graph.
During that time, the price spikes outward—possibly while the market is still thin and volatile—before steadily coming back in as volume picks up. More notably, as the real flow of money starts, the price action becomes pretty much one-way. A bit of a gamble, you might say. Within the last 4½ minutes, the most volume was matched, and the price dropped from 4.0 to 3.35. It’s not the biggest move ever, but it certainly wasn’t a weak race either.
Key Considerations: Late Gambles on Betfair
To make larger profits, you need to factor in these movements. Watching the graph around 3 minutes to post, you’d notice a significant amount of volume being matched, with the price continuing in one direction. At that point, would you consider it a 50/50 chance that the price would keep shortening? Probably not.
These kinds of situations stand out, making it easier to spot quick opportunities. However, bear in mind the timing. Liquidity peaks and troughs at certain points in any market, and late on, there can be a bit of a snap-back. In this instance, it was only a couple of ticks, but it’s worth remembering.
This Week…
The markets this week have been pretty stable overall—it’s been a pleasure to trade. I’m confident it will continue for some time, as it tends to at this point in the year. The conditions are great for trading, with less pressure to perform and more opportunities on offer. If you’re just getting into trading Betfair, now is a fantastic time to start.
With the markets in this state, I’ve felt more confident putting my foot down. On the flip side, it’s hard to stay focused on chasing bigger results with the temptation of nice weather and a beer garden!
This weekend looks to be another busy one with the upcoming bank holiday, so expect things to be manic. Just keep an eye out for scheduling overlaps!
Related: Trading York This Week