If you want to make money trading tennis markets, you’ll need to focus on key turning points within a match.
Failing to find imbalances in market behaviour will lead you to the poor house, it’s that simple.
Professional tennis trading strategies focus on exploiting the potential upsides when the downside is lower.
In this post, I’ll share all of the most important turning points and the reasons for them. Human psychology plays out over and over again in tennis, both on-court and in the betting exchange markets. It’s our job to make the most of it!
The green lines marked on the chart below highlight some of the most obvious turning points in a tennis match. Entering a trade at 1.16 (the first green line) was a pretty sweet deal considering all that followed.
Laying at these prices gives massive upside potential at relatively low risk. Furthermore, they’re fairly predictable.
So what happened at the first green line?
It was the end of the first set of tennis, but more on that later.
The very first game within any match is our first key turning point, it happens over and over again. It doesn’t matter who’s playing either. For a mixture of reasons, tennis players come out onto the court and stuff up the opener.
Does that mean you should have an open position at the start of every game? hell no. However, it can provide a value entry.
Tennis traders have nicknamed Novak Djokovic ‘the bank of Djokovic’ in the past. He’s been known to come out on court and lose his very first service game many times, before going on to win. Getting in after that first service break offers an enhanced price despite the likelihood of winning. Keep an eye on the Wimbledon news to see what I mean this year.
20% Discount for Wimbledon: Tennis Trading Guide
Next, we have an example from one of the opening rounds this year:
To understand the chart: the favourites service was tested several times in the first set (medium-sized spikes). Then, at the end of the first set, Storm Sanders (the outsider) broke the favourites serve (large upswing). This is a key point in time.
The first service game of the second set leaves the underdog with a huge amount of pressure, and the favourite with a larger price. Now in this instance, Sanders held serve but notice one thing on the above chart – the price movement outward was relatively small. Had her service been broken, the chart would look more like this (a few games later)…
So, from a tennis trading perspective – the start of a second set is a key turning point.
What should you have done?
- Backed the more experienced favourite where there was more upside potential
- Gone with the underdog when there was less upside potential
…bearing in mind it’s a point of immense psychological pressure for players (and they all know it).
You’ll see players bounce back again and again over this grand slam. When the underdog gets a fortunate break it’s far more interesting.
Another key point is self-explanatory when you look at the point-by-point scoring within our example, it’s almost textbook.
The end of a set is full of pressure for the players. Because of the way tennis is scored, it’s like locking in an advantageous milestone.
From 4 -4 onwards, both players experienced a mental wobble quite clearly. Bearing this in mind when you’re looking for a break in service is key. A whole match can turn in those final games…
Also, take a peek at the very first game at the top of the image. It highlights what I was saying previously.
A Very Human Pattern:
Maybe you’re starting to see a pattern in what I’m saying here, but the same holds true during breakpoints.
When a player has an advantage (two points in a row see below) during a time of immense pressure, it offers a more valuable entry or exit.
Not only is the best time numerically in the market, but the players struggle psychologically too:
Double faults may appear, players get flustered, and one or two might even smash up a racket…
It’s the perfect time to use exploitive Betfair tennis trading strategies. When you factor in the crowd, particularly if they’re favouring a player, it’s a pressure cooker for drama.
Also, it’s worth mentioning the mind games and choking that occur. Some players deliberately seek to put their opponent off with complaints, calling their trainer and toilet breaks because they know, by breaking the flow of play (whilst their opponent is going well) it increases their chance of getting back into the game. Just bear that in mind if you see it.
Rain Rain Rain
By extension, another big disruptor is the weather. If the rain starts, everything can change. Be sure to familiarise yourself with the tennis betting rules and what happens if a match is suspended because of the weather.
It’s out of our control, but a break in play for an extended period of time is like sending the players back to that first game. Much can change!
So hopefully that’s some helpful insight for you over the next couple of weeks.