General Rambling

Reality Check: Your Chance of SUCCESS?

Reality check: your chance of success?
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Are you being realistic? Expectations are one of the biggest contributors to impulsive behaviour.

It’s reported that 95% of all betting traders LOSE. But is it as bad as it sounds?

In this article we are going to break down that 95% figure further…

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Let’s tackle that scary chunk first. In my view, the 95% line doesn’t necessarily have to apply to you or many other people, if you’re willing to put yourself in the right position.

Think about it logically…

Winners & Losers Breakdown:95% of people loose

For a start, around 50% of the betting market (at least) is just recreational punters. They’re people who like a bet for a bit of fun.

They don’t really care about value, they don’t care about price, they might think they’re actively trying to win by reading a bit of form or whatever, or reading the latest Racing Post article that tells them to bet on something, but in reality they’re not even competing. They’re not even part of the game.

Already your chances have considerably increased…

Further on from that you’ve got the ‘someday crew’. People who are like “I’ll get round to it”. They’re not dedicated enough, although they may have good ideas – they just aren’t ever going to execute.

Then there’s the ones that just aren’t willing to put in the effort, they want easy-money only. On top of that, you’ve got people who haven’t got the right tools. Whether they know it or not, people who haven’t got things like trading software. Who aren’t willing to invest their own time and effort to get educated, outside of the markets.

Also there’s people that quite frankly, and it is a small percentage, that just won’t ever really have the aptitude to succeed as traders. As unfortunate as that sounds it’s just how it is. Again, I’m being realistic here; it’s life.

If we were to take them partitions, and guesstimate some percentages:

  • Recreational Gamblers (50%)
  • Someday Crew (12%)
  • Minimal Effort (16%)
  • Under-educated or Equipped (12%)
  • Lacking Aptitude (5%)

Once you take all of those different segments into consideration, you’ll soon see the competition isn’t that tough. So this is what I’m saying; it’s rarely as bad as it sounds. This is how I’ve always viewed things anyway.

The Remaining 5%…

First of all, you’ve got other people like court siders – who will make the effort and go all the way (1%). They’re all-out to get the fastest feed, ahead of everyone. We may as well take them out of the remaining 5% straight away. They’re looking to bet on a sure thing, although it’s difficult in other ways.

Sure, 4% seems like a very small number. The inclination may be to give up before you’ve started.. but that’s what separates the wheat from the chaff. 

In my personal opinion, it’s far too easy, and way too many people instantly write off the possibilities…

A little like the image here; it is, I personally believe everybody’s in with a chance. Some will make it, some won’t, that’s just the way things go.

But is it really a reason not to try?

To be part of the 5% you have to behave like them, get dedicated and go the extra mile.

 

Related Post: 3 Horse Racing Trading Strategies


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One thought on “Reality Check: Your Chance of SUCCESS?

  1. I have just realised after reading this post, I am using training mode for the wrong reasons.
    I am trying to prove to myself I can make money trading betfair. Training mode is to learn how to trade not how to make money. When I am watching your video pack scalping, I am thinking I can’t do that but really I just can’t do it yet.
    Mike

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