Predicting a draw in football can be tough, but is it possible?
Yes, although you don’t necessarily need to predict the final scoreline to be in with a chance of winning.
Here’s a short blog sharing a few key points that’ll explain why and help you out at the same time…
Finding Two Teams Of Similar Quality:
This is the best place to start. It seems quite obvious when considering a draw, but it’s always going to be the key factor. A big team hosting a small team is unlikely to finish a draw, so we need to focus on sides of equal ability when home advantage is factored in. In these games, it’s quite common to see a pretty open market with both sides priced somewhere between 2.6 and 3.0. Usually, these games are between two teams towards the top of the table, but that’s actually not the best place to look.
Looking at Premier League data we have seen in the past that the sides who have the most draws are usually mid-table teams. Big teams have big players, who can produce moments of magic. Whereas the mid-table sides don’t have these players, thus bringing them even closer. When we have found two evenly matched teams, the next thing to look at is goals. Lot’s of goals tends to mean it won’t be a draw!
Look At The 2.5 Goal Line Market
If you believe in football analysis, the chances of a football team not scoring in an evenly matched game are 29%. Let’s take the percentages at face value. The thing to look for is low odds on under 2.5 goals. If we have a low scoring game with two evenly matched teams, the chances of a draw increase dramatically.
Expected Goals (xG) is a new buzz-word in football as it’s become more mainstream. The reality is xG has been around for a long-time, it’s just the average bloke down the pub didn’t know anything about it. Expected Goals will naturally come down for two sides solid at the back while lacking an edge going forward. If you have two similar teams and their xG is low, then we have perfect conditions for a draw. The stats say the more goals predicted, the less chance of a draw so always look for what the goal markets are saying.
When A Draw Suits Both Teams
Finding evenly matched teams and checking the odds in the 2.5 goal market is very important. But there’s another factor to consider when predicting a draw in football that often comes up throughout the season. There are always certain circumstances when a draw suits both teams.
A couple of examples are:
- First leg games when the favourite is away from home
- When a draw is seen as a “good result” for both teams in the league
- When the slightly bigger team is away from home (Manchester United v Liverpool for example)
- When a draw suits the home team
- When a draw could save both teams from something like relegation
There are often times when a draw will suit a home team, and it’s far easier for them to sit back and defend compared to attacking. Plus it’s harder for an away side to force the pace of the game, especially when the teams are evenly matched. First leg games in big Champions League games when away goals are a factor very often see cagey and low scoring affairs. These are the type of games that you should always keep track of when looking for value betting on a draw.
Finding Value On Draw Bets
Although the above three tips will help you, you must find value in the markets. Without finding value you will lose long-term no matter how many draws you predict correctly. Always try and get the best odds, which is usually on an exchange like Betfair and make sure everything is in your favour before betting. You will find plenty of games throughout the season that have all three factors in your favour, and if the odds are offering value then it’s time to strike!
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