Mr Poolside

Mr Poolside: Freedom. Diversity. Jealousy…

Posted on Posted in Rewards

I’ve been at it again, enjoying myself…  even earned a nickname – Mr Poolside, love-it.

With the national on our doorstep and before the flat season picks up, it only seemed right to take the opportunity for a break away.

As summer racing kicks in trading days will lengthen, unlike the winter where there’s reduced a window leaving a lot of spare time. So while I was sipping on an ice-cold beer by the pool, I thought I’d pop up this post on return…

What You Want, When You Want It?

In a nutshell – freedom.  My main motivating factor when learning to trade Betfair.

Fortunately I’m at a stage where I feel really quite comfortable with life.  Living the dream as we used to say in the Army, except without the heavy sarcasm these days.  Freedom is only half the reason I ‘went for it’ though.  The other half being able to support my family, loved ones and just generally have a nice life.

I find the ability to do what I want, how and when I want is the best return. More-so than money.

Over time, and as life has improved I’ve found more and more have an opinion on this kind of thing.  Remembering why I’ve done all I have is important to me, money alone isn’t just it.  Who care’s if the bank balance is massive?  It’s cliché and been said many times before, but I doubt I’ll be laying on my death-bed one day saying “I wish my bank balance was bigger” or “more time with my money would have been good”.  Like everything though, there’s a balance to be struck.  I think I’ve got it right, for me at least – diversifying has its place…

Diversity: Grow And Develop

So once you start to accumulate wealth and succeed.  What do you do with it? Blow the lot? Invest it all and become a hermit? 

Personally I believe in working to live, rather than living to work.  But without being reckless… one of bonuses to trading is the time it takes.  It’s one of the main attractions to me, it always has been.

In the early days I’d just wake up late, roll out of bed, trade for a few hours and pop down the pub.  Fun as it was, I realised I wasn’t using my time effectively. Now, I spend a little more time updating this blog and investing elsewhere, to increase and diversify income.  It just makes sense to me, filling the gaps around the racing and countering the dreaded Premium Charge.

I had this conversation not so long ago with Peter Webb.  It’s surprising how much he does outside of trading.

Self development is just another way to diversify too, something I’ve become a fan of along the way.  Investing in yourself brings the biggest rewards… always be learning!  I’ve made it part of my daily routine to set aside a little time to learn something new, every day.

Jealousy, Envy…

Succeeding has its downside too though.  Be warned.

When you go from the guy just covering the bills to having a ‘flash’ car, several holidays a year and looking at various investments, others latch on.

Sadly, it’s nearly always those from the other end of the stick.  The academic types that spent years at university, or had a privileged background.  To them: it must all be a blag or something, having a nice life, opportunities, investing…  All from the ‘council estate’ lad. It can’t be true!

Nope. Just no self-limiting sense of over-entitlement thrust on me!

Plus life’s taught me the world owe’s me nothing, getting on is more important.  Sulking about what you ‘should have’ is a dead path that leads nowhere, just like pessimism – because you can’t do it now, it doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

No matter what life throws at you, enjoy it to the full…

Related Posts (click an image):

Maldives and betfair  Barcelona Betfair Trading poolside

58 thoughts on “Mr Poolside: Freedom. Diversity. Jealousy…

  1. Well said Caan. I also have noticed snidy comments by certain learned pro traders. They are baffled as to how any of the great unwashed can make money by any other means than manually.

  2. Your an inspiration Caan, I love reading your blogs and I’m an aspiring exchange trader, and speaking of learning all the time I’m reading a book that you might be interested its a guide to financial freedom, like how to invest your well earned money but there is also a psycological element that relates to trading. Its called “Unshakable” by Tony Robbins well worth a read, it comes highly recommended and all profits go to feed the homeless.

  3. Keep doing what you’re doing Caan!

    There’s two types of people in this world.

    1. Those who crack on, putting in the effort to make a better life.
    2. Those who sit back, trying desperately to pick apart other peoples efforts.

    It’s not hard to guess which group ends up seeing more success in the long run.

  4. Good for you, Caan, the “the old man in the wig” is nothing more than an internet troll looking to drive traffic to his site and “James Slutler” is just a failure trying to tout trading books. Anyone who’s read his book will know just how useless it is too, most of the coding is out date and no longer works with the current API. It’s poorly coded with no explanations behind it, you could pick up sample code from the BDP site that’d give you a much better start to coding than his book.

    The majority of their comments seem to be driven by jealousy and snobbery. You’ll also notice James Slutler continually avoids mentioning anything to do with his pnl as I have it on good authority he’s actually a net loser on the Betfair site 🙂

    Just stick at it, if you’re annoying “the old man in the wig” and his sycophant sidekick you must be doing something right.

  5. Lol, that old man in a wig used to have a photo of himself on his site with his ‘wife’ until someone rightly pointed out she looked like some mail order Thai bride 🙂

    Wouldn’t surprise me if Slutler was an overall loser, I see he’s done another post trying to flog one of his books that’ll put you on the road to riches but as usual nothing to back up those claims. For an industry where we’re judged on our profits Slutler avoids any proofing at all costs with very lame excuses.

    1. does anyone still have that picture ? His wife ( 2nd wife is called Bianca and not Angelica ) , it makes you wonder what is made up and what is truth < i have discovered that Mr Salter lives in both the UK and the USA < just hope he does not trade on betfair when in the USA ( he he )

    1. that house with a pool was sold recently < property purchased was much smaller and cheaper < think they call it moving down a ladder ???

  6. “The academic types that spent years at university, or had a privileged background. To them: it must all be a blag or something, having a nice life, opportunities, investing… All from the ‘council estate’ lad. It can’t be true!”

    I am guessing you are referencing Robert Salter > I think you will find they are not as well off as they make out > main theme of that blog appears to be to have hooked in people who thought they were academic < for example XX draws lost 20% ROI over 3 seasons at a charge of £149 a season.

    In summary

    I think is/was an elaborate " con " < but not in a legal way as industry not regulated

    You have to wonder why he tries so hard to hide his identity, unlike you.

      1. Robert J Salter is 60 Years old. Robert’s phone numbers include (501) 575-0360, (501) 575-0892, (817) 684-9351, (760) 434-6423, (479) 251-8777 and (817) 684-9352. Robert’s email addresses include ROJOSAL@AOL.COM, ROJOSAL@ATT.NET. Robert’s possible relatives include Vanessa Teenagerste Salter, Vanessa P Salter and Vanessa P Salter.

        Robert’s most recent address is 1800 Eton, Fayetteville, AR 72703. Robert previously lived at 2770 Madison, Carlsbad, CA 92008, 5442 Elderberry, Oceanside, CA 92057 for less than a year, 8248 PO Box, Fayetteville, AR 72703 for 5 years, 215 Locust, Fayetteville, AR 72701 for 5 years, 2770 Madison, Carlsbad, CA 92008 for less than a year, 1390 Main, Euless, TX 76039, 3501 3rd, Cape Coral, FL 33904, 2770 Madison, Carlsbad, CA 92008 for less than a year, 10367 Slater, Fountain Valley, CA 92708 for less than a year, 1842 Cortland, Fayetteville, AR 72703 for 9 years, 342 Cortland, Fayetteville, AR 72703 for less than a year and 701 Kenilworth, Fayetteville, AR 72701 for less than a year.

  7. I received a threatening phone call from Mr Salter from the number on the link < he was trying to intimidate myself and my wife

  8. The GOB advised ” It is hard to see how Hillary can lose ”

    Of all major national surveys, the LA Times and IBD/TIPP tracking polls were the only two to call a Trump victory
    CBS, ABC/Washington Post, Bloomberg, Rasmussen, Monmouth University and NBC News/Survey Monkey all got it wrong

    Robert Salter is the owner of the Blog and they live in Arkansas USA so I was wondering how they managed to place their bet on Clinton @1.6 because residents of the USA are not allowed to access the Betfair exchange .

    I am not sure if Mr Salter suffers from Amnesia because if you have read their blog over the last few years they give the impression that they still live in Surrey and a simple search has shown that they moved to the USA circa 1992

    Mr Salter’s wife is called ANgeliCA on the blog and her name is Bianca and if you have followed the premium advice over the last few years then you should be wondering how much of the blog is reality and how much is fiction.

    Maria Konnikova is the author of “The Confidence Game,” a book about con artists and why we fall for their deception. Here she tells us why intelligence can make us more susceptible to being conned.

    If you have followed the XX draws / value selections over the last few years you will have noted that you made a whopping loss added to the insult of having to pay Mr Salter for losing betting advice and I have little sympathy because you did not do your own research and you probably concluded ;

    ” it is hard to see how I can lose following such high powered analysis ”

  9. with respect to Caen , they have made the same mistake as many others > what in basic terms happened was that someone sat down and could see a ” niche ” in terms of a blog that attracted people who thought they were ” intellectual ” I have read every one > the ” Soccer analysis ” for example is no more intellectual then any other Soccer blog is James Slutler really the name of the trader > I have never heard of anyone who has met James Slutler haha

  10. 4/11 on the Green all over blog is retired very soon < I for one will be having a Party at the IVY to celebrate ( haha )

  11. http://alphasportsbetting.com/betting-experts-share-their-biggest-win/

    10 Betting Experts Share Their Biggest Win (& How They Pulled It Off)

    Roberto Cassini – Green All Over

    My biggest win occurred on May 26,2011.

    Miami Heat was playing an NBA play-off game in Chicago, and with four minutes remaining, trailed by nine points to the Bulls.

    I decided to lay £30,000 at 1.03, risking £900. The bet was taken shortly afterwards, and the Bulls price dropped to 1.01 as the lead extended to 12.

    I’d accepted the loss, but with 3:02 remaining the Heat, at that time starring LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosch, lived up to their name and got hot. Miami made up the deficit with one minute remaining, eventually winning by three points.

    > pissed my pants with laughter when this blog described Robert John salter ( aged 60 ) as a thing expert

  12. One quote that I did pick up on the Green all over blog was this:

    Courses by Pee Wee, the squadie and The Bodger are all given by poorly educated and unqualified people. You get what you pay for.

    I personally think this is unfair as it insinuates that only courses given by well educated ( in terms of academic qualifications ) can be of any use. Some people are not / have not been fortunate enough to have the support network in pace to be able to go to university and instead have had to make their own way in life and self educate themselves. To then insinuate that anything they do isn’t of any worth seems very unfair and to be honest sits every uncomfortably with me.

    How does the author of that comment know those people are poorly educated? And define “poorly educated” anyway. Some of the biggest fckwits known to man are “well educated” in terms of academic results but seem to be capable of making rather strange decisions. “Lets meddle in other counties affairs in the Middle East again even though last time we did it we had no plan for what happened afterwards and it left a power vacuum”. “I KNOW LETS DO IT AGAIN” “AND AGAIN”.

    But hey those people were obviously well educated (Tony Liar and David Cameron both went to Oxford) and well qualified people so what do I know?

    My Mum used to have a poster on her wall “some people think its nice to be important-I think its important to be nice”. Some people could learn from that.

    http://www.fulltimebettingblog.com/time-flies/#comments

  13. There is an adage which says, “Never meet your heroes,” which is an attempt to warn us that we might be disappointed if I we do. Generally, we idolise someone for a particular reason and not for their whole being. We might play a sport in our spare time and idolise an exponent of the game for their skill and not for any aspect of their private life that we might find abhorrent.

    As a child I was a fan of Bjorn Borg, at the time known as The Ice Borg because of his calm exterior. Certainly, a player to model myself on. However, his private life was chaotic and he was burned out by the age of 25. Borg’s last year at the top showed him in a new light, without the calm exterior, arguing with umpires. But Borg was a proven winner. His trophy cabinet – if he had one – was a testament to that.

    In sports trading there is a tendency amongst beginners to latch on to those who they think are winners. The hope is that they will learn something (very difficult in an edge driven zero-sum game) or that association is enough to imbue the powers of their idol within themselves. However, proving that these idols are what they say they are is far from easy.

    Cassini has performed some excellent investigative journalism on a certain Mr Sunshine to demonstrate that all is not as it seems. An apparent playboy lifestyle acted out online with holiday snaps, cheap beer and an extremely dodgy photo (meant as an April Fool’s joke) that will hardly endear him to any lady followers.

    Another well-known trader/vendor appears to be constantly defending his reputation on Twitter due to accusations that he no longer trades. If you had a multi-million pound trading software business and five directorships in various companies would you waste your time on low margin trading unless it was part of your marketing narrative?

    Those that lack confidence always need affirmation that they are following the right path. Be it struggling traders latching onto those they believe are successful or vendors for whom this is the first time in their lives that anyone has paid them any attention.

    Has anyone met James Butler ?

    for example have you met him at

    a) a betfair drinks party ?

    b) a trading seminar

    or c ) is he another Adam Heathcote ?

    footnote : 100% expectation that Robert John Salter has never been to the Opta forum ( haha )

  14. Another ‘on-off’ reader of this blog, Signora Cassini – who really should take more interest in my opinion – suggested after reading recent posts, that Asperger’s Syndrome (AS) might make for an interesting post topic. I’m not sure why she thought the topic relevant, though I have written about the brain before. Some facts:

    Asperger’s Syndrome isn’t a mental health problem. It’s a difference in brain wiring that a person is born with.

    People with Asperger’s Syndrome will have one or two areas that they are intensely interested in and spend a lot of time pursuing. They don’t just dabble in their interests either, they go full out.

    Researchers have noted that people with AS often pursue their interests with a focus on accumulating facts, not necessarily understanding the big picture.

    People with AS often offend people or are accused of being insensitive because they seem to have no mental filter.

    As adults they can wind up socially isolated and have a very hard time making friends or getting into a relationship. Because so many jobs require at least some element of people skills, it’s not rare for them to have trouble finding and holding down a position, or be underemployed.

    One characteristic is an encompassing preoccupation with one or more stereotyped and restricted patterns of interest that is abnormal either in intensity or focus.

    People with Asperger’s can think in an overly rigid way. They can also sometimes become ‘stuck’ on a topic and have trouble moving on.

    They don’t ‘get’ socializing on an intuitive level.

    They have difficulties with putting themselves in another person’s shoes.

    They show an ignorance of social rules.

    Aspergers appears to be hereditary, and perhaps the social awkwardness and relationship issues that are part of it are nature’s way of saying ‘don’t have kids’.

    One tends to initially assume when engaging with others through social media or in person that they are at least somewhat like you, but more often than you might think, this assumption is wrong. We are all different, and some of us are very different.

    Without the visual cues, it’s not so easy to tell via social media when someone is ‘different’ or just being irritating, but having realised that another party has issues, it would be cruel and inappropriate to continue the, albeit dysfunctional and often one-sided, conversation.

    Some people, through no fault of their own, simply can’t understand logic or what is acceptable social behaviour or civilised debate, and the right thing to do once you recognise someone has such a disability, is to go gently into the good night and politely ignore them.

    Robert John Salter Posted this on green all over blog < Dec 2014 I think there is enough information for deformation of character / not to mention intimidation etc

    does anyone have an address for Mr Salter in the UK ?

  15. Robert John Salter is like a playground school bully. His blog is just a vehicle for him and his pal James Slutler to belittle as many people as possible. I stopped reading it a couple of years ago and I would suggest everyone do likewise

  16. If we assume that Robert Salter is a USA resident and does not have an address in the UK then how comes they discuss trading on Betfair on their blog ?

    A USA resident is not allowed to trade on Betfair

    Salter made the mistake of annoying too many people who have in effect joined forces to repel him >

    the Wisdom of the crowd ( haha )

  17. Robert John Salter was behind the site XXDRAWS which he promoted on his blog GREEN ALL OVER <

    it was an elaborate con and I advise you to contact Mr Salter to ask for a refund < why was it a con < well the results for the 2011-2012 season < before charging , were posted on the green all over site < the results were made up in terms of games that had already been played to make it appear to be a successful strategy <

    Mr Salter worked out that people who think they are bright / academic are very easy to manipulate < he was not wrong

    email calciocassini@aol.com < good luck

  18. If we put in $10 each we could hire a private detective to follow Mr Salter < he also uses the surname Alter < I wonder why ??????

  19. here is a picture of Salter at school

    https://twitter.com/calciocassini?lang=en

    on the green all over blog < no mention of Cassini University days < I think they did not think that not going to Uni would fit the profile of an " academic "

    haha

    wonder why they ended up in the USA ???? and what job have they been doing ???

  20. Opening Thoughts
    Posted in Uncategorized by rojosal on September 27, 2009
    What is “Green All Over?”

    The title is a reference to ‘Greening-up’, a term used by Betfair users to describe the ideal scenario whereby every possible outcome on an event will result in a profit. (The ‘what-if’ figure shows on the screen in green.)

    I have been active on Betfair for over five years now, and have had some moderate success. Some good wins, some small wins, some small losses and some frightening losses, but overall I have made a steady profit.

    I have recently starting reading a number of blogs themed on Betfair, hoping to pick up some ideas, but sadly most seem to be a diatribe of eating and drinking habits, interspersed with less than informative betting related comments like “Lost £2.67 on the cricket today”.

    The exception is the (almost) identically named http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/ blog which is unfailingly entertaining, witty, incisive and occasionally provocative. The author is going to give the much vaunted wordpress and all its added features a chance to prove itself.

    If horse-racing is your thing, then this blog is probably not for you. Racing is just not for me. Rather like the stock-exchange, there are far too many insiders with access to a lot more information than I have and I find that the world of sports offers a more even playing field.

    My investing style, and I prefer the term ‘investing’ over ‘betting’, is to trade fast moving sports in-running, looking for value. The markets are driven by two factors, fear and greed, and in the heat of battle, these factors drive people to make bad decisions and take or offer poor value bets. This is what I look for. I don’t always win, but like I explained to my old Mum, if I can get 2-1 on a coin toss, I’ll lose some, win some, but come out ahead in the long run. Sadly I don’t often find 2-1 on evens chances, but in Betfair terms if I can get 2.1 on a 2.0 chance, I’m happy.

    Leave a Comment

    well my comment is that Salter then changed his mind and advised he finds the edge is betting before a game starts.

    make your mind up Robert

    footnote

    I THINK Robert has been living in the USA since 1992 so that means when he uses Betfair = wire fraud = oh dear oh dear

  21. Roberto’s Stuff

    Biography: Born – South London, England

    Lived – Purley, London

    Kenley, Surrey

    Caterham, Surrey

    Fayetteville, Arkansas

    Euless, Texas

    Fountain Valley, California

    Carlsbad, California

    Interests: Watching Football, Rugby, Hockey, Basketball, and participating in Running, Cycling, Postcard Collecting, Movies, Astronomy, Reading, Politics, Current Affairs and more.

    Sports Teams: Crystal Palace FC, Chipstead FC U13’s, Arkansas Razorbacks, Dallas Stars, Dallas Mavericks, Anaheim Angels, San Diego Chargers

    Also like: Chelsea FC, Iowa Hawkeyes, Philadelphia Flyers

    Astronomy: Cassini Finance: Money Sports: Football: Crystal Palace FC

  22. FRIDAY, 4 FEBRUARY 2011
    Weekend Value
    Something a little different this week, in addition to the usual draw and value picks, and that is using my Elo based ratings / Poisson system to look at the Under 2.5 goal markets in the EPL for value. The Unders looks value in the games at Aston Villa (1.8) ( LOST ) FT 2-2 , Stoke City (1.7), ( LOST ) 3-2 EARLY AWAY GOAL Everton (2.5),LOST FT 5-3 Tottenham Hotspur (2.1) LOST 2-1 EARLY HOME GOAL and Wolverhampton Wanderers (2.2) FT 2-1 LOST EARLY AWAY GOAL while the games at Manchester City (1.74) WON , Newcastle United (1.99) WON 4-4 EARLY AWAY GOAL , Wigan Athletic (2.34) WON and West Ham United (2.14) FT 0-1 LOSTlook value for Over 2.5 goals. The Chelsea v Liverpool game is priced exactly as I have it.

    I have Wigan Athletic as value to win at 2.64, although they also show up as a weak draw possibility, so a lay of Blackburn Rovers at 3.0 BET WON will be my play here. ( Wigan 4 Blackburn 3)

    Not many strong draws again this week, Nurnberg v Bayer Leverkusen, 1-0 FT LOST Auxerre v Lille 1-1 FT WON ( 0-1 half time ADDED TO THE EARLY AWAY GOAL FRANCE LIGUE 1 and expectation of some draw bias) and Almeria v Espanyol 0-0 FT WONare the three.

    I have Brest priced at 1.85 v Nancy, and 2.22 looks a generous price. BET WON FT 2-1

    In Serie A, Udinese also look too short at 1.7 v Sampdoria BET LOST, as do Parma at 2.52 v Fiorentina BET WON ( 1-0 half time added to early second half fight back SERIE A = draw Bias FT 1-1 )and Internazionale (2.02) v AS Roma. INTER 5 Roma 3 BET LOST EARLY HOME GOAL > accelerated goal production and lowered the expectation of Roma fighting back.

    In Spain, Osasuna at 2.16 v Real Mallorca FT 0-0 BET LOST and Real Zaragoza (2.14) v Racing Santander look good. FT 1-1 BET LOST ( interestingly an early away goal game that was 1-1 half time and should have had expectation of further goal(s) second half but they did not arrive.

    After Manchester City gave me my first losing away pick in midweek, I’m looking to the other Manchester side to get them back on track with a win at 1.47 at Wolves.

    BET LOST – WOLVES WON 2-1 Nani Early away goal and Wolves 2-1 half time and if you have read my 2-1 half time European/PL blogs then you will be aware that 2-1 half time home added to the early away goal and very low expectation of the away team fighting back and there was high expectation that UNITED would not score in the second half given the events of the first half.

    I thought it might be interesting to look at Mark Iverson‘s comments regarding some of the upcoming games, and then throw in my thoughts. Mark’s comments in bold.

    Stoke v Sunderland: According to my form table Stoke are the worst team in the Premiership at the moment, so I was surprised to see them such strong favourites for this one. Sunderland will miss Darren Bent but in my opinion there’s still value to be had in opposing the home team. Conclusion: Lay Stoke @ 2.16 BET LOST STOKE WON 3-2 ( early away goal and 1-1 half time ) and since 2009 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 and 1-1 half time and the away teams won 18.5% so low expectation of Sunderland winning the second half and high expectation of goal(s) production in the second half given the early away goal event and as a result lowered expectation of a draw.

    I have Stoke priced much higher too (2.46), and 2.16 is a lay for me also.

    Everton v Blackpool: Everton’s last 4 game average is much better but is their short priced justified? They still haven’t got a prolific goal scorer and Blackpool are my 8th best performing away side in the league. Conclusion: Back Draw @ 4.80 BET LOST EVERTON won 5-3

    Everton are too short for me, and a lay at 1.49. BET LOST Everton Won 5-3

    Man City v WBA: WBA are shading the 4 game average and it’s pretty close on the home/away ratings. Man City have the better players on paper but the Baggies could nick something out of this at a big price. Conclusion: Back Draw @ 4.80 BET LOST City Won 3-0

    Manchester City are value here for me, as short as they are. I have them at 1.27, and at 1.45, that’s value. ( Cassini advises the draw and then advises City are value after saying WBA could nick something ) OMG WOW INCREDIBLE ……

    Newcastle v Arsenal: The big teams are starting to up their game at the right time and Arsenal have been very consistent of late. Newcastle’s performances have started to tail off over the last 4 games and without Andy Carroll I can’t see them matching the Gunners firepower. Conclusion: Back Arsenal @ 1.70 BET LOST 4-4

    I’m looking at laying Arsenal at this price. ???????? are you ???????? you just said back Arsenal ???????

    Tottenham v Bolton: Bolton are another team struggling and their win against Wolves midweek could flatter to deceive. A performance in the ’20′s’ from Spurs should be enough to see them off. Conclusion: Back Tottenham @ 1.63 WON 2-1

    Tottenham value for me too here. I have them as 1.36, so 1.66 (which is now available) looks good.

    A last minute goal at Tottenham took away a small profit, so three winners from seven games at 1.74, 1.99 and 2.34. I need the Overs at West Ham tomorrow and the Unders at Wolves in a few minutes to turn a profit on these. ( blog the next day )

    Summary

    What is really interesting is that Cassini advises that Spurs are value in one blog and in the next blog he advises that ” a last minute goal at Spurs took awat a small profit” which I assume means that he advised a draw to his XX DRAW followers who pay £149 a season and what is even more incredible is that the game was 1-0 half time ( goal 6 minutes ) with a fight back goal 55 minutes and historically around 85% expectation as a result of the second half fight back goal in the Premier League that the game would not end 1-1 and as a result in the fight back games in the PL you see lowered draw bias.

    Kranjcar scored on 92 minutes to show how important it is to understand game state analysis in terms of the high expectation of the 3rd goal………

    There was an interesting discussion on the Betfair forum concerning someone (the Investor) who had lost £14k on the Newcastle – Arsenal game. The main point of contention was whether or not he should have layed off at 1.01. The individual concerned is one of the more successful on the exchanges, at least as far as one can tell, and my feeling is that he is successful, at least in part, because he DOESN’T lay off at 1.01 unless it is value to do so. A number of, to put it kindly, less experienced, or more bluntly, clueless, posters seem to think that you should always lay off at 1.01. Of course, these same individuals who have no concept of value are people whose banks never build up to the level where one can ‘afford’ to lose £14k. There’s also the issue of how much £14k is to someone. One poster referred to it as a ‘mortgage deposit’ and for him that may be true, but for someone with a paid-for house, and a million or two in investments, (there were 489,000 UK millionaires in 2007), a loss of £14k is not much more than an irritation. In fact, it is quite likely that a down day for the stock market (not an infrequent occurrence) would result in a loss exceeding that amount, which is one big reason why the number of UK millionaires dropped to 242,000 in 2009! The bottom line though, is that you do not lay off at 1.01 simply because you can. You should do so only if it is value to do so.

    Cassini deflects any thoughts of his own strategy by discussing the Investor who he said lost 14K on the Newcastle v Arsenal game which is correct as I spoke to him after the game ( YES LITTLE OLD ME )

    Cassini has the story slightly wrong ( is this a common theme ? ) because the Investor backed Arsenal at 1.01 and then tried to smash out of that position but could not get rid of all his liability.

    It is a eureka moment for me which is that Cassini is leading his ” followers’ down a path where they consider his strategy to be a winning strategy but in essence there is very little depth to the strategy .

    It appears that i am the first person to look at Cassini in detail and I think he is masking his lack of knowledge by “targeting” people/ideas/strategies that in basic terms are outperforming his strategy which is not proving to be that difficult.

    His strategy is based on randomness.

  23. In Dec 2014 his blog published my address and my phone number and encouraged people to call me <

    In March 2015 Robert Salter called my wife and then the phone was passed to me and he advise me not to discuss Cassini

    I am aware it was Mr Salter as I did a call back and the number was the same number that is on the XX draws data <

    I then thought naturally that I would take legal action against Mr Salter to discover that he lived in the USA

  24. Robert Salter has never published details of my property portfolio < what I am trying to say is that Mr Salter is suffering from Confirmation Bias , you may laugh , but there appears to be no cure for this illness.

  25. TUESDAY, 21 FEBRUARY 2017
    Always Above Average
    One of the best written and readable blogs out there, is Brian’s Betting Tools.

    His latest post looks at “What do pro punters/sharps bet on?” and in the sentences on football, and Over / Under betting, are found these words:
    What Buchdahl is able to confirm, is that there is a bias towards betting on over 2.5 goals. This isn’t surprising as you can see from forums and twitter that this is a very popular bet but why? Buchdahl explores a few possible reasons for this in his article but the one that stands out is the negative feeling punters get when a goal goes in. It generally feels better for most people to cheer on a goal and turn a bet into a winner than it is to start with a winning bet and it turn into a loser. Particularly for those who get excited by gambling.
    Taking the above into account, it did surprise me a little to see fewer prices over even money for the under 2.5 markets, particularly in the Premier League. On closer inspection it seems that the average amount of goals scored in the Premier League is 2.4, so unders should always be priced below evens on average. Perhaps this is another reason why people prefer to bet on over 2.5 goals. For the recreational punter, betting a tenner or so, the thought of getting less money back than you risk is a bit unexciting and at even money or more you will always win more than you risk.
    Joseph’s finding (from an admittedly small Pinnacle Tweeted sample of 200 matches last season) was that:
    75% of matches witnessed a preference for betting on the Over (betshare greater than 50%) whilst the average Overs betshare was 62%.
    Other than the small sample size which Joseph acknowledges in his article, I have an issue with Pinnacle telling us what the betshare is, because the number of bets in themselves is meaningless – what is important and useful to the punter, is how much money is being placed on each side.

    The betshare number could be 99:1 – but if it is 99 mug / square punters (“who get excited by gambling”) backing Overs with £10 because the last three matches between the teams in 1908, 1930 and 2009 ended 4:1, 6:2 while one sharp is backing Unders for £990 because their model has a lower goal expectancy than the market suggests, the information is almost useless. (What is useful is that if such a betshare is reported, but the price remains the same, you can deduce that a similar scenario to my exaggerated example is playing out).

    I think Brian could have phrased this sentence a little better too:
    …the average amount of goals scored in the Premier League is 2.4, so unders should always be priced below evens on average.
    Always be odds-on, on average? You can’t have both “always” and “on average…”

    From his blog

  26. posted on: January 15th, 2017

    At half time in the game between Leicester and Chelsea over 2.5 goals was offered at 11/8 > What factors does the betting industry in play algorithm use to produce the prices for the goal totals ?

    In the table below I have added the last 20 games in the Premier League where Chelsea opened the scoring away in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 half time , 65% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.65 = 4/7

    The last 20 away games played by Chelsea when they opened the scoring in the 21 minutes to half time band and were winning 1-0 at half time , 35% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.35 = 15/8

    -” and the fixation that once in the dressing room at HT, a team trailing 0-1 that was scored against at 9 minutes is different than a team that was scored on at 23 minutes.”

    From his blog

    footnote > a message for Shapeshifter and his chums > Over 60? Then it’s time to take advantage of all the good stuff that’s out there. Like 25% off a pair of great-looking glasses from our £69 range or above, including designer styles. That’s a great new look for a lot less money then your premium tips.

    https://www.specsavers.co.uk/offers/over-60s

    T HT FT T HT FT
    Leicester Chelsea 6 0 1 0 3 Palace Chelsea 43 0 1 0 1
    South Chelsea 6 0 1 0 2 Sunderland Chelsea 40 0 1 0 1
    Swansea Chelsea 18 0 1 2 2 Boro Chelsea 41 0 1 0 1
    Villa Chelsea 8 0 1 1 2 Liverpool Chelsea 32 0 1 1 1
    Stoke Chelsea 2 0 1 0 2 Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
    Palace Chelsea 6 0 1 1 2 Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 0 3
    Norwich Chelsea 4 0 1 1 3 WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
    WHU Chelsea 13 0 1 3 1 Liverpool Chelsea 45 0 1 0 2
    Spurs Chelsea 17 0 1 2 4 WBA Chelsea 45 0 1 1 1
    Villa Chelsea 9 0 1 2 4 Man City Chelsea 32 0 1 0 1
    Sunderland Chelsea 18 0 1 1 2 Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 2 2
    Blackpool Chelsea 20 0 1 1 3 Reading Chelsea 45 0 1 2 2
    Man UTD Chelsea 20 0 1 1 2 Stoke Chelsea 45 0 1 0 4
    Blackburn Chelsea 6 0 1 1 1 Norwich Chelsea 38 0 1 0 1
    Villa Chelsea 19 0 1 0 1 Fulham Chelsea 45 0 1 1 1
    Hull Chelsea 3 0 1 0 3 Newcastle Chelsea 38 0 1 0 3
    Boro Chelsea 14 0 1 0 5 Wigan Chelsea 34 0 1 0 6
    Wigan Chelsea 5 0 1 0 1 Liverpool Chelsea 33 0 1 0 2
    Man City Chelsea 6 0 1 0 2 Portsmouth Chelsea 32 0 1 0 5
    Sunderland Chelsea 10 0 1 0 1 Wolves Chelsea 40 0 1 0 2

  27. In 2012 Robert John Salter advised on their blog that they worked in IT . I have seen evidence that they are good at IT because when I try to log into their blog site from my laptop I am redirected to RED TUBE .

    In my opinion the betting industry is full of people with IT / Marketing backgrounds which is in effect slowing any progress in the development of football data and analytics .

    Mr Salter worked out very early on in his blogging career that confrontation would provide interest in his blog which does not speak highly of the people who read his blog.

    Mr Salter appears to have an interest in betfairtraider so I can only assume that they have a ” financial ” relationship which would be to send betfairtrader traffic >

  28. In 2009 Robert John Salter advised that he was paying the betfair premium charge which appears to not be a truthful statement because Mr Salter has been living in the USA since betfair appeared in 2001 and a resident of the USA is legally not allowed to use betfair .

    One source of amusement if you have read the Salter blog is that his son in one blog becomes his daughter < do you remember his nephew who he advised that worked for a firm ???? haha

    a very large chunk of the Salter blog history is made up .

  29. When I read a blog re Salter advising that the XX draws were a good vehicle to avoid the premium charge , I literally pissed my pants .

    If you subscribed to the XX draws then can you do me a favour and advise why you thought that backing the draw before a game would result in a long term edge .

    Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the time of the opening goal and not even Salter could have predicted the scores of the XX draws as time decayed ….

  30. It was September 2011 when Robert Salter received money for a premium service promoted by the green all over blog site and in the table below I have added the games that I believe that were advised under the umbrella XXDRAWS and i confess that I have no idea how the games were triggered in terms of expectation of the ” RATINGS” producing higher expectation of a DRAW then the market expected but I can see that West Brom did not play Everton on 14th April 2011 but they played the game on 14th May 2011 and this is significant as the excel sheet was obviously not constructed as time decayed during the season but at a later data to show case the service.

    Does the early goal effect expectation of a game ending a draw ?

    I think that is simple to answer because if expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( GAME STATE ) added to the variables that may occur such as an early goal and the early goal accelerates goal production then by definition the high goal production should lower expectation of a DRAW.

    In the table below there were 43/141 30% that had an early goal event ( opening goal by the home team 0-10/ opening goal by the away team 0-20 and only 11/43 ended a draw ( 26%) compared to (33%) for the whole sample of games.

    72% of the early goal games as defined above in the table below ended over 2.5 goals which means that there was certainly in general acceleration of goal production.

    To paint a comprehensive picture you need to understand that 0-1 half time added to the early away goal in ligue 1 for example and there will be some draw bias in the second half so you cannot take a blanket view and say that the early goal and expectation of the game being less likely to end a draw then predicted before the game because you need to be aware of the half time score which will play a crucial role in terms of any draw bias in the second half.

    What you could do is to build a trading strategy around the draw in games where there is an early goal so for example if there is an early goal game and the draw tipster that you follow had advised a draw in the game then simply back against the draw ( lay the draw) to cancel out your initial bet on the draw before the game started or you could simply wait to see if there was an early goal or not before jumping on the draw advice.

    Imagine that you backed the draw in a game in France Ligue 1 before it started and there was an early goal so you simply lay the draw after the early goal metric and then you find the half time score is 0-1 so you simply back the draw back with expectation that the events of the first half and there will be some draw bias in the second half.

    An in play strategy that profiles games with similar events will show you how to react to the events that occur but a ratings system that triggers bets before a game starts and does not offer you the facility to respond to events is likely to lose in the long run.

    Although the XXDRraws ( Robert Salter ) did start well it was ironic that as soon as Robert started collecting subscription monies ( £149 for the season ) that the wheels came off the XXDRRAWS and they ended down 15% ROI in 2012-2013 and down 5% ROI 2013-2014 .

    The XXDRAWs confirms that past performance is no indicator of future performance and basically a good example of a random strategy where the variance has been in play over the last 3 years.

    Summary

    Build your own in play draw trading strategy around the effect of the early goal and you will find in many games that you will be looking for that late goal as a draw and no draw bias and it arrives and the followers of Robert Salter will be thinking that they are unlucky because the game did not end a draw as a result of a goal on 90 .

    Have you ever seen the film ground hog day?

  31. Robert John Salter February 5th 2015 advised that :

    A couple of other items to mention, and one was this question from Laurie on Twitter:

    So what’s the beef between you and sotdoc? Personal or analytical?

    Whether or not this means Sotty is alive and well and continuing to comment on this blog isn’t clear, although he is certainly a frequent visitor, but my reply was:

    I don’t know Jonny personally, but his logic is certainly flawed, and he is incapable of rational argument. Any criticism is taken as a personal ‘attack’ and it’s hard to take him seriously when he lies about involving the police!

    I think Jonny probably means well and tries hard, but unfortunately he just doesn’t have the mental capacity to understand when his ideas are refuted. However clearly you try to explain how and why his logic is flawed, he just doesn’t get it. He’s a good example of the Dunning-Kruger effect which proposes that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

    fail to recognize their own lack of skill;
    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;

    As Dunning put it:

    If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is.

    I thought the coments were worthy of response and my reply is as a follows;

    I personally have no idea who Cassini is and I have never met anyone who has had the pleasure of meeting him.

    I first came to his attention when I expressed concern that he was “targeting” an entity and I politely asked him to consider removing the post.

    Within days ( Feb 2014) I found that I was being advised by Cassini on his blog site that I am mental and comments were made on his site that I look like Jimmy Saville …

    I showed the Cassini blog to the police who advised me that Cassini was not breaking the law so I accept that Casssini is allowed freedom of speech.

    My main interest is to understand who is refuting my work as Cassini does not provide this information and why my logic is flawed because there has never been evidence to suggest that my strategy is flawed Via Cassini and the in play results suggests that my strategy is solid as a rock.

    Cassini made an attempt to define a goal at Old Tradford was not the same as a goal at Meadow Lane on 5 minutes but the effect is the same which is expectation of further goal(s) .

    In effect there is no platfom to defend my strategy should I wish to follow that route as Cassini has failed to establish what my strategy is and I have no idea if this is as a result of his lack of knowledge of inplay metrics or he simply does not want to believe ( a hidden agenda).

    I personally do not find his arguments clear at all and remind Cassini in 2013 that he was asking people where he could find goal time data so maybe he would like to take more of an interest in the in play side of football.

    His XXDraws which he charges £149 a season are down 20% ROI over the last 3 seasons and I think at a charge of 0.00p that my in play analysis is offering better value for money.

    This week I advised 14 bets and the results were WWWWLPWWPPWWWL and this season the longest losing run is 2 which is a remarkable achievement.

    I would be delighted to have a discussion with Cassini with regard my strategy and maybe he could invite me to do a guest a blog which I doubt would happen as I suspect he may have a hidden agenda to protect his cash cow which is his premium service which is based on betting before a game starts which is not an area I have found an edge in but I have certainly shown how to produce an in play edge.

    Perhaps Cassini has failed to understand my analysis which means that it is a little rich of him to advise that I do not have the mental capacity to understand when my ideas are refuted and it may be that Cassini after 6 years of blogging is lacking in ideas for his blog site.

    I offer over 1300 blogs explaining my strategy so I offer Cassini ( i am wondering if they really exist or an a betting industry site ) to either do a guest blog which for example the nice chap at Fidens did and then Cassini ripped it to shreds( ground hog day ) or I invite Cassini to write a detailed blog to explain why my strategy is flawed.

    In summary Cassini has not provided any solid evidence to show that in play game state analysis is flawed.

    Myself and others are using it and finding that the results are phenomenal which is an indicator of a good betting strategy.

    I personally believe that advising bets on the draw in the long run will end in failure and Cassini has shown that without anyone needing to investigate that area further.

    I am happy with my strategy and if Cassini is happy charging £149 a season and seeing his followers lose money consistently then not a problem for me.

    footnote: I did advise one pre off bet this weekend which was Palace/WBA double chance Double based on new managerial game 4 data .( so far so good as Palace won )

    Look forward to receiving a reply from Cassini and hope it has more depth then an ” early goal at Gay Meadow is not the same as an early goal at Old Trafford ” as it is because it is an early goal metric.

    If Cassini is in any doubt in play game state analysis is based around profiling games with similar events to define accuracy as time decays.

    Today I gave In play “commentary’ of 17 games and was spot on with 13/17 in terms of the expected outcome of the second half. 76%

    1. 0-1 half time added to early away goal Premier League and lowered expectation of a home win but Spurs won

    2. Doncaster 0-1 half time league 1 added to the early away goal and we see in general lowered expectation of away team winning second half but Doncaster lost the second half.

    3. Bury 1-1 half time added to early away goal and lowered expectation of a draw and a 1-1 on one missed and a penalty shout last 10 minutes but ends a draw ( 1-1)

    4. Reims 1-0 half time home and 1-1 as time decayed second half and lowered expectation of an away win but Reims lost.

    The other 13 were spot on.

    If Cassini is really interested in my strategy then he would actually discuss my analysis in detail but has anyone noticed he has not as his followers may be less keen to depart with another £149 next season. ( cough cough Cassini Kruggerrand).

    Been a year since Cassini called me ” mental ” on his blog site .

    Have you ever seen the film ground hog day ?

  32. a basic summary of Robert John Salter who also uses the name Robert Alter < he has targeted anyone that he felt was " harming " his " betting " income stream which circa 2015 was the XX draws ( a premium service ) and getting a % from promoting various tipsters such as Skeeve on his blog .

    If we move on to 2017 there is no premium service and the only interest that Salter appears to have re betting income is the chap known as betfairprotrader , naturally I am not aware of their financial arrangement .

    Personally I feel blessed that football data is only a hobby.

    footnote : quite a while back I described Cassini and his sidekick Shapeshsifter as the chuckle brothers .

    It is clear in my eyes that Mr Salter does not have any ideas of their own .

    In my eyes Mr Salter ( they certainly may be good at IT ) has very weak analytical skills in terms of football analysis which I conclude shows how weak football data analysis is at the moment.

    Once Mr Salter retires from blogging we can all get on with powering out ground breaking football data and analysis

  33. 2.0 out of 5 starsDon’t give up your day Job!
    ByGreentradieon 16 February 2017
    Format: Paperback|Verified Purchase
    Don’t waste your money! There’s no giveaways here, just a few hints and a lot of code to make the book look thickish. If you want to go down this track, by the time you’ve taught yourself statistics, probability and coding language, you’ll make yourself a lot more guaranteed money as an IT guru working for someone. The over-round plus Betfair fees is a big percentage to overcome as an edge. You’re up against syndicates that employ the best IT consultants and have the fastest response time. I’ve only known one IT expert that makes 6 figures in his day job, whilst his self coded algorithms grind away 24/7 to, yes, eek out a tax free profit that pays for a few economy class family holidays each year. Never enough to live on. Apart from the pro syndicates, the only people making a consistent return, are those flogging books, tips and software to the dreamers.

  34. I am confused because one minute Salter is complaining that Andy Napier is claiming to own an Austin Martin via betting wins and the next minute he is claiming that people who bet should live in a big house <

    It turns out that this friend James has until recently been living with mummy and daddy ….

    Do you think Salter has read that book < how to make friends and influence people ???

    or that famous betting book on draw strategies by J R Hartley ( haha )

  35. n addition to the blog Cassini also has his own tipping service. His XX draws are his main product and have produced a good profit every season since they were launched. Since they began in 2009 the XX Draws have amassed an ROI of nearly 10% from over 800 selections. Cassini uses his own rating system to determine his bets and they are completely objective.

    You can track the performance of the XX draws and other professional tipping services like Drawmaster, Football Elite, The Football Analyst and several amateur tipsters in the Friendly Tipster League. The FTL is run by Cassini with table updates and summaries posted on his blog. It is however not so friendly these days with money now at stake and the top 3 taking an appropriate slice of the £25 entry fees.

    Cassini’s writing style is authoritative and at times borders on arrogant. He doesn’t mince his words and some of his posts are almost confrontational. These kind of posts are entertaining as proved by the ‘Cassini v Iverson‘ post which is one of his most viewed pages on his site but there is always a valid point to be made.

    It’s very difficult to come out on top in a heated debate with Cassini but if you do find yourself embroiled in one, stay hydrated.

    when betting tools wrote the article the xx draws were infact down 12%

  36. Cassini uses his own rating system to determine his bets and they are completely objective. Salter never actually explained the strategy behind the draw triggers ( haha )

  37. the best part of the Salter blog is when he advises that he is off to America to visit family / watch Palace play … hang on he lives in the USA > does he suffer from memory loss ???

  38. A few years ago I was chatting to someone about the sports tipping industry and they advised

    ” middle aged men are not a good profile for selling ” tips ”

    the key point is that Salter was 51 when he started his blogging venture and he went for the persona of an ” academic ” who was well respected in the betting world

    8 years later and the cracks have appeared .

    Would you piss your pants if you discovered that Robert John Salter never went to University ?

    You can see why Mr Salter has not been keen to show his real identity because Roberto Cassini on paper sounds far more authoritative .

    If you are thinking Salter has only recently been targeting people via his blog then think again because within days of starting the blog he created confrontation which appears to be his number one way of getting ” hits ” to his blog site

    The problem that Salter has is that Mr Berry has a monster huge following in relation to the Cassini ” hits ”

    in effect Salter got too big for his boots >

  39. Whoa oh oh
    Ooh ooh
    No no no
    See, I don’t know why I liked you Salter
    I gave Roberto all, of my trust
    I told you, I loved your XX draws . now that’s all down the drain
    Ya put me through pain, I want to let you know how the wife feels when you phoned
    what I said about your blog , it don’t mean XX now

    I don’t want your premium service back

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